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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。8 g8 ^( c( t9 M+ q6 y' w- B0 O/ R, F
6 J5 E+ p$ b1 r& u' k) S. b比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。
3 G& ?4 Y4 D$ }7 w; e* F+ k# F; S5 P: G4 @
2 L' h1 M& u; }, [严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:0 J3 d1 G/ J) y* g# }
; N. G" U6 o E0 K# J一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;
r4 A. z4 u7 N) i* F+ O- |7 G3 H0 W- Y1 S8 [* j; N. z
你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。/ o( @5 K$ x: G- P4 Z* X7 W
2 a; j% T, v _& u" o% V7 R6 F
那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。
5 v5 Z5 T7 Y, x$ Q9 ]: F$ Z0 g
- m. M b2 g+ |. a你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,9 o: X7 ?4 H: g
/ ?% [& L( P6 T* Y& \9 u只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。$ _( ? _7 O4 s1 N
' X, ]6 I% i: T, H这是四二法则中的“二”。! K- M2 A! N, \" G) K% N' y
2 l3 m5 w ~7 S: u5 \5 ^; t
当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。
: ~+ f3 ~ _8 C6 T! @2 `# C5 F$ M& g) W, c0 H m4 p% ^
比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。
- Z7 S6 v; s4 ]# |+ ^1 J
% @; }6 b" }( l: X9 t& n2 y不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌( a0 ~4 o. L4 O Z" M& h
& E3 Z5 \3 y$ C9 n$ u* `
那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:
8 y1 v5 w3 `: m1 G0 C; I, A2 [
1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。
- O0 g) M4 K$ V. O
- k" E1 [( x' Z那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。
8 n* u1 F9 F) N7 T. y
5 }0 @. k1 h- h这就是四二法则中的“四”。* q) Z) L. n& E! _5 L0 Q6 T
% v" l$ | I3 g: P0 R1 j
总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。( _* k: I* U9 c6 T
* f* i m/ n) `: q! Y; ~9 K |
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