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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。
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0 i& \* U; ~# l! V j* a比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。- P( I/ h- L6 u# G4 b' j- K8 e
8 T, y2 Q' m5 y* y严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:4 I2 q& U( O5 G% T: [' x
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一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;! g. H$ \" n* i0 f, }# }
1 Q: |( f+ p$ \- m+ v你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。
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那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。
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& ^) E! J7 T0 l3 h9 a你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,: X( o/ q! J4 y
7 j& d, k9 f6 @+ J" j, [只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。: s, |; ^1 s/ L
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这是四二法则中的“二”。
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当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。) _) L- C) H v+ m. E7 N% J( `7 _
N; ~2 s! X& ^5 j1 A* w9 Q. L比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。
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不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌# ?( W' G2 D- D0 C$ @& |% S! j
3 b0 V# }* G+ [7 z9 H9 D那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:
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$ \6 ]6 e: y3 I. U1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。* [8 d& C# N# o
+ {% k) d+ v6 r O* i* ^那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。; t3 K( N5 ~' T+ f; a
1 ]# s; ]; ]) K" u% S2 l. F这就是四二法则中的“四”。
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Q! u2 G( l/ V) z% l; y总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。
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