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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。- @) ^% a3 h* x0 @6 [8 f& T
: f& N1 ?! E( x" ?7 B5 t比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。
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严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:
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一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;$ a& q7 }6 J: @% x d
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你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。* ?( G! @ p. x0 u& }1 L5 _
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那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。
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你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,
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. o0 b' S( w: R W只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。$ O: Y z3 g' P& q- T0 x
* P4 K7 L( ?7 v. n# V2 Q) r% K2 L这是四二法则中的“二”。" [3 M% g/ r) Z4 K! k' C+ a6 n" F, {
, e' Y, b* l4 Z2 ~3 V- T当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。
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. J" _& T4 J% T- G比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。
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不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌. O4 d; N" |& Y+ j( i7 q
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那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:- }/ E# S8 l+ O* j: M
! w, h& k; x* a9 K+ V1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。
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4 _! ~ e; v0 L: Q! E7 Q$ z( I那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。
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. P2 z @9 g9 ^7 y; p" [9 |3 i这就是四二法则中的“四”。. Z' r X' Y6 q
$ z l& m1 z/ W/ D4 b: r, m
总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。0 ?5 Q; K% r. P& t
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