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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。1 |2 B' j& `. a* }6 j
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比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。
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严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:
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一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;& W+ G- I8 C7 W; e, m
* l1 ^* w0 U5 l3 @8 [你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。
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那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。
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你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,
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: L8 N- U6 O% {( d8 |& M只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。: n! g6 L- J/ U* Q2 ~
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这是四二法则中的“二”。
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" K; _. Z, m% W- N2 c; m: y4 n当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。8 [+ s, t. D* X7 I* [# ]' W
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比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。
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9 N n1 b) T. @' b: w2 w3 n/ v) ?9 t) x不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌
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7 }9 U% h7 G1 B5 Y/ k& D% {" J3 x那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:1 D. ^ d( p3 r9 Z' K6 a. v
( a& I: T) Y. h& I' o1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。* }/ T \3 U# c. K
4 B' v2 `0 c) j那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。3 c/ Y. D: r8 N1 w* l( J
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这就是四二法则中的“四”。% e+ O# H3 f* i p8 e: {
) H3 S# p+ g" f R% h! q$ c总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。
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