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“四二法则”是一种估算概率的方法,让你能快速计算你想要的牌出现的概率。) q1 r9 j0 |/ W
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比如:桌子上的牌是A-6-7-Q,而你的手牌是8-9。你想要再来一张5或者10来凑成顺子,但你只剩最后一轮机会。
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% a# w! @& A' N5 W; N4 G0 E严格来计算德扑概率应该这样:
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一副牌52张,去掉翻牌3张,转牌1张,手牌2张,剩下52-3-2-1=46张;
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你想要的牌是4张5和4张10,共4+4=8张。6 y4 l% M& F8 M! h
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那么此时,你在河牌中顺子的概率为:8/46=0.1739,即17%。) c, T# Q8 t0 r
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你可能觉得这样计算会比较麻烦,于是就有了四二法则,即:你想要的牌有4+4=8张,
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只剩最后一轮机会,所以让8*2=16,即你有约16%的机会中顺子,与上述17%基本近似。
+ X$ `1 B9 d1 n$ L- E7 E2 R
) j2 i/ p9 A2 Q f8 ^" e这是四二法则中的“二”。4 `' l! P. A, i$ p0 X
# ?3 S' V s# [) J当然,如果你还有两轮机会的话,即河牌圈与转牌圈,情况是这样的。& N8 K) z" Y9 O( P8 G1 C
* O; [; f- O& I比如桌子上翻牌为A-6-7,你的手牌依旧是8,9。
& N1 q' V; Y5 `: M6 u! R+ d3 \' J/ p' w# o5 }- M5 S- O2 g
不一样的是,你有两轮机会来等5或者10,共8张想要的牌
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8 p, S" M3 z) c) a+ @1 N2 J那么两轮内你中顺子的概率为:
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1-(47-8)/47*(46-8)/46=0.3145,即约为31%。' T2 I3 H/ G" W( a1 b9 d
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那么利用四二法则,8*4=32,即你约有32%的机会中顺子,是不是跟理论值也很接近。" W4 T9 Q0 {+ g4 p
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这就是四二法则中的“四”。% @0 C0 n% s" [3 o1 D6 W
K: o8 ^0 ^) ?/ B. g i
总之就是,先想好自己想要的牌的张数,然后,还有两轮机会就乘4,还有一轮机会就乘2,得到的就是你想要的牌接下来会出现的概率。接着,根据真人德扑圈的游戏玩家以及战况来决定接下来该怎么办。利用好四二法则,可以帮你快速估算概率。
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