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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?) o+ v& I3 z/ e
/ ^5 b/ K8 d7 O: z/ O
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。, U7 ]% i& _0 @% |2 g0 H7 b
. |3 P- v- ?) @" P" q* M其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
6 v8 i: R% @0 h1 D
3 M& k: ]( W3 L, q) x6 Q/ G/ N- H首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?' B( j; R% _$ `& w; @
6 m! ?" t) `: `请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。& t+ X g0 `; S* c
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!9 j6 G+ g- A: F" z
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
" ?; r- c( }4 v3 ~2 c* F# `$ S8 E6 U5 ?% e( x0 \) M' X
现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
. v$ |8 c- y8 P2 }, c& x- c9 a2 T# k: c. n4 B9 J6 Y) H
我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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4 y7 d4 b, J. ~. ]- t+ n% A玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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L; c" {8 Y* L6 h. [玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。! |* Q5 }$ h/ F9 y8 I
! _. B: r4 ?* g* g, f: M& S这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。0 c' X. r- E* X6 p
7 j' b- H! T. Y接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?) P0 b8 f% n, U
3 {. J' A2 f& L2 n) V8 l玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。' f, j: l: c3 x2 L# }+ ]
6 K& ]9 \ g8 P+ Z: d6 }再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
6 Z9 V2 x7 A( Z+ @4 o' e7 C P. g5 N8 f% \7 m6 z0 c
如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。) x+ V2 M) C* D* k- m0 y7 q+ Q0 _
* F8 f3 }. l7 o' k1 }; u& z/ C但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
" _" T1 z3 j N4 A
) r- x: p' K1 d! @0 T8 j下注比例 本金结果1 Q4 {- i, m' t
6 @& Z8 _. E- G& j! J6 b1 u" d, t0.1% 1.001902
" B) C2 A1 E" a6 r% U% N
1 i) |' w8 f5 e" z1 o0.2% 1.003606- Z1 s8 k) c% c' d6 p/ G
% S. p0 |4 n" x+ }* y; ~/ p
0.3% 1.005113
" ?) S% t$ k$ \- `
, r& q, F6 Q3 m; |& |0.4% 1.006421: e! s. [# L# ]8 c5 e- b
4 L$ w! W# x' s/ w- m$ l0.5% 1.007528! u3 x- w* D- L* n6 K* h7 c! h
4 l& V g* z) t% E' k0.6% 1.0084359 A9 ]* k0 B/ T# E2 T( W o
, }) ?% }8 w0 p/ u0.7% 1.009142. P2 V: [" {% A/ o+ E
: |& G+ W6 m7 }& M
0.8% 1.009646
0 X6 X; O5 i) G3 ?) N$ J
- c6 S' v3 o- P, X0 F0.9% 1.0099491 E. f9 c& x8 Y* a" S. [* T
. r) x+ J+ A6 _5 f) Z1.0% 1.010050 j/ H. H/ @9 Z
2 [4 S |& H& w2 o6 Z/ w" Q$ ?
1.1% 1.0099490 y+ k! ]5 b% U! {4 T
9 c& b8 y. X; E' P* @ |1.2% 1.009646
/ n" @8 t' Q* y6 |4 |9 p7 K% c6 p& m( U% y% E& G: c. ]
1.3% 1.009142
; `6 c f' n7 U$ \5 V% [2 o. O* z) }& J. W0 Z* Y G4 N, @1 Q
1.4% 1.008435
7 |7 H8 A8 F8 x( E3 a. X/ q: s# a. O6 _3 b' `
1.5% 1.007528
! G# v/ z1 I- |: V" n4 o7 @) R3 D7 u8 S; m
1.6% 1.00642* y$ S, ^) [2 v" ^
% d% p/ J) s7 W) l: u/ k
1.7% 1.005112
" Y2 |4 ~! k. N9 m3 U3 o* }8 ~! l5 P0 c0 [/ l! Z0 R& S* a |
1.8% 1.003605' Q# a8 J2 m( C
% f( y# h7 G7 e; g# y4 Q5 I
1.9% 1.00192 m8 H% O3 }% `$ V) U" ~% r/ d
2 }, E# [4 ?$ o2.0% 0.999997
/ Z L' N! x2 x. T# L+ ~- H7 `& k5 `4 i+ z g# x, M4 t2 i1 C2 X
2.1% 0.9978991 N0 V2 W. Z8 p& d
) [, J' ^8 X2 s- B2 x4 m! i: m, I% [- S2.2% 0.995605
2 z8 k+ ?( w' B0 i" c0 F( j1 [2 [ y# f+ X" g
2.3% 0.993118
! ?8 g f- ?. q7 F6 c8 `0 W$ V3 [) N' I8 h( V; T* J8 T3 q
2.4% 0.990439
; S6 s- J! ~& f- R0 o
^" Z9 E* l( W( c- W8 o0 s2.5% 0.987569 b' R1 @6 O2 a2 t
2 t- S- [' U- m- F \4 m2.6% 0.98451
2 {- {5 k+ c7 Y; T% ]' x. x( Y4 ?2 z% b& ]
2.7% 0.981264
9 u: @4 o& [6 Y' ^
! o, \7 b" H' T* y2 G* v- }8 I2.8% 0.9778338 X4 o+ a" f5 u; o
" e# M& M4 f* {; Q) x2 m2.9% 0.974219
7 R- r; Z" K* p) l f* w# V3 m L& u' Y0 J( _# |/ d
3.0% 0.970424
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从上表可以得到一些结论:% a8 B* V: K2 k g& a2 v
" M2 n# z) w7 m1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!' @ e0 P L( U% H3 M; y- _
7 `8 [) o; B5 C! `* d# a3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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4 O, A3 L6 {0 y" O0 y S+ i凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。& }2 u7 k# k& o: |$ e/ p) O) j* |8 f
- u# | W8 q% S& \2 p& o以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。4 e5 h- l# m. \( ]' j
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