×
Array
(
[fid] => 6903
[description] => 汇聚千万菠菜人经过无数次摸爬滚打总结出的原创经验打法,更是菠菜高手纯粹交流殿堂。
[password] =>
[icon] => 27/common_6903_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6903
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,1121,6977,6765,6948,6879,6845,6903
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6903
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6951,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6895,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6975,6976,6799,6974,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,1121,6977,6765,6948,6879,6845,6903
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[716] => 版块公告
[1510] => 打法练习
[1511] => 打法交流
[1659] => 入驻合作
[1745] => 提现流水
)
[icons] => Array
(
[716] =>
[1510] =>
[1511] =>
[1659] =>
[1745] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[716] => 1
[1510] =>
[1511] =>
[1659] =>
[1745] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 31 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 理论实战大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 4
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 15127
[posts] => 518020
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 44
[rank] => 5
[oldrank] => 7
[lastpost] => 2649715 【CMP】5月14日投注流水14008元(单日流水) 1715689658 jslinen
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 0
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 1
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 8
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 4
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 1050 小时
本月在线: 3 小时
|
|
有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?2 V6 r2 l+ O7 R- h$ |
; q6 z: e) g4 \+ u) m7 L3 W' m会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
; Q+ S- c# i, s: u* n
* h( F7 q6 _5 q4 f" {$ q其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
" w5 s- u @0 A! r0 [( I6 J
+ W$ ~7 ]! _9 ~" N! V# n8 Q }首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
" {3 b* r3 @7 k: ?$ p" h/ r" e& V5 } r% H u" i0 W2 k
请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。* J+ ` \5 D: V/ h7 x1 j7 b
% H! \$ W( v. K5 t5 R答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
/ H* ~0 l, Q* E! a0 L9 ?
/ p2 z! V1 R$ B! E例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。8 x+ z& j5 H5 i8 h* y& L
8 N8 F0 O+ ~7 k: M+ I
现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?# u: l+ |$ F! Z9 j. n" }# U. I
+ ~; r% H1 H3 s+ I
我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
% L8 h/ g* T0 w/ G, X" P; p; E q% P N; q3 w1 T
玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
5 \+ n( ^* T! r- u1 `
# ?( _0 j- ^0 Q& ?4 m) s玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。( e8 C' g3 N5 y# c
7 R ]7 f Z" w0 {) P H) v这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。0 X0 I% y7 J R- c+ o+ J9 M1 u& _
: o. I$ I4 e1 P) w1 o+ H
接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?" n. M6 M. ]& n1 o% u
4 K) B, r' Y0 \7 O玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。/ ?* x4 Z7 v3 V/ L
; s1 N' G; i0 C |
再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。& r' |) w8 R& s2 N m
* E9 Y _4 X$ }2 d. h
如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
F1 B: z S9 C/ Z' V5 h# F$ J0 H- f9 Z" I J3 L) K
但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
1 u, r4 N z/ v( h# S3 r
! @& K( L8 J; s7 F. `下注比例 本金结果( [1 N) R5 S7 @ `& Y' i K
6 s9 Y) C" g% W, z$ m: g
0.1% 1.001902
( \* \/ h8 F+ a6 y; ~
+ T. m, |1 X# ^& Q% P0.2% 1.003606$ @1 y/ _8 `3 m( G) W' B$ b, P; B
1 d- A4 I6 V% M5 e
0.3% 1.005113' w" g" C* O3 i+ Y
1 J6 b7 m6 ?: a$ Q6 G( q$ O
0.4% 1.006421
; E7 P1 h; T8 E* D5 Y0 u1 y
( A) V7 x( S+ J% D0.5% 1.007528
5 {# ^4 J( D5 E7 k, J% H9 [, P
! z$ k4 K$ K* S) ]0.6% 1.008435
- z( v. J# y3 M! C, E9 P5 B* T3 C, a7 k, r3 g' M
0.7% 1.009142
* \3 Z3 n+ B' f( _% H1 r) F2 M2 O0 J! J5 @% P. ~0 r
0.8% 1.009646; l0 p) t. ~7 b8 y6 A( d m( M
8 p5 X( e8 J$ A$ ~+ v4 ?5 j6 @
0.9% 1.009949! ] w2 U- A9 ^2 q
8 b8 k* j% ?% D4 J2 i6 Q
1.0% 1.01005
! R4 v- E' x6 x4 b4 n; @6 G, f" e" h" _: p; g" Z
1.1% 1.009949: a* v0 r+ e" p3 e( H# w4 j7 f! x# E
/ Y) d. H0 l6 o5 { ]% k
1.2% 1.009646
9 b( t5 B% S! t1 {) ^6 w0 `, }
5 n5 A* i; D( K" d1.3% 1.009142
( w- h& Q+ z4 `% n: k
6 {1 D. M% _8 O1.4% 1.008435
1 O) h ~( l. l' P. S% _- u2 C# o8 [6 U) f3 K9 R- o
1.5% 1.007528
) @2 l! X k/ b- }% [9 R/ s' _4 l/ d* l# m
1.6% 1.00642
, C, T* l* p2 l9 c* }
( A; I2 H- w+ U9 P9 i2 `1.7% 1.005112
4 X3 c' I5 e# H4 K) x
& \7 y! C5 h( T2 P3 V7 a% S1.8% 1.003605' w- P, b# e: X7 i; n
* I1 w$ t2 z$ N" H+ g1.9% 1.0019/ h+ C* b5 U( [ j
. s. e$ p7 H' T$ K8 v v5 f
2.0% 0.999997
. s+ [4 T" Y- h% G' J$ r$ Z$ X/ F$ i1 Z( y L
2.1% 0.997899
) ~4 X! E# ^ G
$ H2 B" O4 j4 {& c3 V2.2% 0.995605
, `9 \+ W$ T4 u* q8 i
$ @; ]' m; P/ _+ W3 x8 O2 L2.3% 0.9931185 _9 G" W v9 E$ P8 y
8 P+ p2 h8 U% T0 g: [$ f
2.4% 0.990439
( O) j v. {8 ^2 j. k0 @$ e+ P& |
3 }- l2 C9 p5 m+ C. F5 a! V" C2.5% 0.987569( }1 y& r# B2 K/ Z3 e
; K& Q* \! ]& P- c, s* D5 z3 X
2.6% 0.98451- ?! V4 _) A4 T8 g B
6 W# s) G& t: W& a" j" E5 k; j2.7% 0.981264+ ]8 _9 C- b2 m5 z% {( }
8 o, \+ ?3 K% d) L P# d( z
2.8% 0.977833/ |/ i! l0 V% b. o+ k; K
- v6 L5 N$ o, I5 W- b& }) h2.9% 0.974219
# Y9 g: ] X4 `2 P- c0 ?* y9 T. }2 ?) I" I+ X
3.0% 0.970424
$ h3 }2 f b2 N& X6 G, X
& i# k( t3 f% W2 M" t2 v8 e2 x1 y7 Y从上表可以得到一些结论: `$ \1 p, E' H- r7 _
" T# P" j: [2 c$ B) g" m1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利* P! a, p3 A" l" }1 I
4 j% r& ]' J3 Y. S0 f) M2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
5 P* y2 V' i$ H& X, @8 s G1 f% b8 S9 I
3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈; o; x, z3 @: j: W& `8 b& |* m
9 u: R+ o( v: q8 d8 |凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%..." S1 J7 O! ^+ m: K" A" p
# b: T9 R& o$ B6 ^4 f: C Q然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
$ K3 N# J" f. T) p' Q% L& e
- [3 y5 r+ g' M# |* A- S& e1 i; a以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。3 R5 |7 |; V3 @, [2 l7 ~0 N' S: Z
5 o4 a' ^6 h3 w. F5 w |
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 11522 小时
本月在线: 51 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 17416 小时
本月在线: 41 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3400 小时
本月在线: 17 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 16935 小时
本月在线: 102 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2131 小时
本月在线: 22 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8201 小时
本月在线: 24 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12096 小时
本月在线: 20 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 9388 小时
本月在线: 38 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4169 小时
本月在线: 32 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|