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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
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会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产! X& m2 D: m7 l
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?, A$ W* F% D( V1 q1 C
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。2 E7 }6 h$ X( ~/ @' r. Y3 _$ T/ B, f
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!' Z* x* ?- _; w8 j8 x8 R/ F: b+ B
8 P. c+ K9 h) U4 y2 ^6 |1 ]6 E+ ]玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。: l' L* D! [% f
" u- ?' M. `1 n2 o6 m这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。7 v, M3 _; s0 h: ~
4 v* ~5 Z0 s4 o! A: E2 m. Y0 Z接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?% b% Z% N$ H/ T$ }
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。( M+ J, K" _$ U0 s$ }# A
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。& @9 x: h. g0 }- L' e
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。/ |' f) n3 Z3 u3 ]1 e! K4 F* f
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下注比例 本金结果' N3 |' g4 w& F4 ~' j
7 `# |5 O2 y! T, N: K7 |0.1% 1.001902
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0.2% 1.003606
9 x, w* {: i1 |' ?- B1 p1 h# |$ N- M- C5 o& v
0.3% 1.005113
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" l* e4 ^* F% t0 g/ ?0.4% 1.006421( n3 @" ^: A4 l0 M" s
1 ^4 T; c w; Y/ L F0.5% 1.007528+ {% [+ b. [% G X5 s
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0.6% 1.0084352 K8 S5 t& U3 l6 u8 i/ X6 l( d* j, h' h
) b; ~: L; N( Y5 m$ T8 s1 g( D0.7% 1.009142
, `% J( _/ F% T# m: T4 b: N& w, h/ k( T# ^ X1 q* s
0.8% 1.009646
' d+ R" ]# \7 }7 m" [5 d- ^6 n2 w8 u4 N H* r6 ]7 p+ x8 t; {
0.9% 1.009949# P$ d5 r; r9 l# y
4 ]; j6 w* N, \' w0 O
1.0% 1.01005
7 {4 X' j# i2 Z9 C; X" I8 M$ x& ^+ ^3 E! F# y8 \6 Q5 C% |
1.1% 1.009949
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. O W1 z$ r: R0 n% x1.2% 1.009646# ~, [0 |. G+ _6 B$ C5 M5 |2 `
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1.3% 1.0091424 O1 n; y7 ?& i# W9 _
* G! ^8 Y, k1 y) }* P
1.4% 1.008435
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- {( b, s) O7 @1.5% 1.007528
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0 }9 Q" D' R" u9 C2 D) `1.6% 1.00642
# q }( {# L3 x. f5 J8 ^+ a
( u1 l ` I) w% K" I" C. o1.7% 1.0051127 [2 _- f8 E* w
/ r* f7 n3 A6 t: F
1.8% 1.003605
/ L$ ]0 }2 K1 m; A2 ^% a1 A4 t& ^. `5 G# A
1.9% 1.0019
* ~5 Y) f. b [+ J7 |
- f% h# S+ l* x8 P2.0% 0.999997
7 Z4 @5 d+ z/ `4 \5 w) F
# b1 J e7 s& w5 N9 j4 C2.1% 0.997899
3 K1 }' t0 `3 x, s3 R% F
% z3 ]+ h0 I8 |$ A; q0 K2 B% @2.2% 0.995605' @8 L/ ~/ C. B
2 z" J% f: H) B* o$ Y2.3% 0.9931183 r. }5 r6 m; C: i; m6 M' Q7 X
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2.4% 0.990439' \" [% Q: H& g4 W6 u/ r4 ]& R* ~
) o7 B% }8 F. B+ e- h2.5% 0.9875694 X6 F8 k8 }9 t' X7 D, x
' p8 G" ^ Q! |1 s$ o1 e
2.6% 0.98451% e5 M) D) o* r6 t% i
0 r/ g0 s$ f3 L, k2.7% 0.981264" P/ h) H; p7 P- \" G( ?
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2.8% 0.977833' T1 _8 C" T4 b( R, [
* A! u! O+ P- v2.9% 0.974219
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3.0% 0.970424
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从上表可以得到一些结论:
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利" A2 F$ V) J' l4 ]: l8 @+ H1 F3 E
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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1 E" I2 |; D* q$ D2 |. z) j: _3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈8 }, ^8 {. ~% I2 q, A: L3 d. U6 z
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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4 Y! P# n' n; R) n; Y以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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