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[lastpost] => 2648061 【星宝】5月7日投注流水51321元(单日流水) 1715605551 yubuluowang
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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
' p9 W# e! ~5 U5 L7 }$ @" J7 U. w: F: b( S; g9 j4 P$ S
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。$ A4 W0 g6 O' `8 f
+ i) V1 L, F: l! W7 l
其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!6 \- c0 x, }6 n$ u6 n: _: u
' y7 K7 ] d: k5 x首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?: m4 a( ~7 f! K/ X
6 b3 C* Y$ F3 y# [ M: ]请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。/ F( P, P9 l+ c
/ ~- M! f& {1 _1 E% p2 l答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!- g1 S3 k7 |4 u9 Z6 ~8 n. z
* j/ p0 g. T5 g1 s9 E* N例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。* l- [8 i4 ]2 p X1 ^/ `) e# Q
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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" @5 X$ @- s+ L# b7 ^, M: O9 R我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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( I v' U1 A* P) y4 l* {玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!* y9 \( V: K, y+ x6 H8 O
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。9 h2 p+ f9 b5 f. ]6 G+ K: W
3 y/ v/ ~8 B$ w5 |这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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. C K) H, C. ~ {/ W6 m接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?- L- J( W9 k6 v: z8 s5 t# Q
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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% C4 S8 ^7 _" R' b6 W& v7 ~再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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& J0 a- P3 V3 x但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。) _7 u5 P% k& Q) |2 ^
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下注比例 本金结果+ |* n8 D5 N( [% d% ]
0 z0 A N8 F+ J) J6 T) A
0.1% 1.001902
8 s6 C& d" p& A& d, b+ T) B; y' c/ l8 U" f# j( B
0.2% 1.003606
3 F/ p0 k7 E7 Q D' S
& e( h8 U$ D. A; S, P- _9 n) W0.3% 1.005113% ?, `7 d) q, O; l3 ^- G
& A' `; S, n" @/ ~: q& R4 ?" J$ K2 t
0.4% 1.0064216 y) n5 j; k* G; a1 D/ D7 h
. L5 X9 q/ b) i% U
0.5% 1.007528! T- A, Z: I5 y5 Z2 r
9 B: n* ?4 Y! c# L' c
0.6% 1.008435
" O( D& C& }! H! r- F9 j1 f2 t3 D- p. s
0.7% 1.0091426 f F6 ?: ~ C1 X) I: z0 B. u
6 R" \* T: k) s8 q0 Y; X
0.8% 1.009646
- o: c4 I2 K0 y# X+ U7 B; k& V
) q+ i$ @. q& U- C$ N6 v$ M0.9% 1.009949
$ S& ^: k/ g" k! r" B$ B3 ~1 z F0 a, j
1.0% 1.01005% ]7 h' o) G U* }( B. r
( Y' M/ U2 J3 H F6 g, f4 W
1.1% 1.0099490 i+ x0 [7 W1 W/ I! a
( {7 m: \. A" A# I' R' e
1.2% 1.009646. `7 ~3 R) E/ A* a! u! U
1 q- T" B% T U( ]1.3% 1.009142
; M% ^0 [( j0 y& K- {# }3 R5 z
7 p* b) j" @6 @) b1.4% 1.008435
: u/ l8 L1 g1 H5 P3 [7 o
@7 t. @. W# P5 Q/ D1.5% 1.007528
( S) H K/ H! q$ I7 S, f7 w2 F F, q. S. G) S3 J+ u3 m% Q
1.6% 1.00642
0 s- L! Y5 t" H4 d
; m- L% ~) b, P1.7% 1.005112/ j% [0 L E0 J+ z4 `- d
/ Q- w4 a/ r7 J5 c
1.8% 1.003605% w# p1 {1 f) |: w& X3 R, S; d
9 E, H! N0 H- _# Y8 D( W" \+ I2 ~1.9% 1.0019' |) b4 i% c$ L9 v; W
$ h* [' b( Y& ]0 L, _, W2.0% 0.999997$ H) G6 C* d# j2 D( j
1 u0 e9 u/ T, l. _. S
2.1% 0.9978990 o* G4 o4 K/ S5 _2 q1 j
9 \8 ~% f# }" w# e7 G
2.2% 0.995605
+ i* H& x1 Y4 J" C
! i- V- W; ?7 @( X2.3% 0.993118# u1 M, v' ~) b* A: ^
' l1 c) t; d/ ]! R4 X0 n D5 u+ ?
2.4% 0.990439
% h2 C2 f' H; r2 o/ l' `: B/ T6 A: ?7 e" b' h
2.5% 0.987569
: x: X3 {# x) O
; E! z0 p/ V0 x) l2.6% 0.984510 T) } q5 `" e2 L6 h
4 `7 m, p9 h! C' \8 E+ O2.7% 0.981264
1 a3 k: ~ ^7 s' `/ l4 I, Z3 p/ _+ H1 }6 D6 m3 [: J1 U7 b4 J
2.8% 0.977833
* c _4 l# Z* W7 X
$ W" l# X9 k) _# i" J# p7 j% c! i; \' k2.9% 0.974219
% d; R% i% Z2 I& ?$ u1 K" _$ b! n% V' B, m4 {2 B
3.0% 0.970424
" G7 h& R. Q+ e- O( l# W9 C0 c, ?1 C6 h3 n j6 v
从上表可以得到一些结论:0 ?; E0 i, e$ M9 B& c) j
' i5 U* `/ T# ~* ]6 ~6 |1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利. r6 Q* L5 G j" P; \( S
8 p# Z& _- S' n3 F2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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) k6 W m& p2 D) B凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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( q w, y+ K7 D! e! E5 P然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。& N, _& j, z( h1 d; F( B: p
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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