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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
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- S: O$ p3 y* B' a* g' t会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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8 f8 i% B9 K4 p0 X3 |0 N其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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- t" [* q) j' y请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。. z6 o5 N& c& \' s: h4 \- s
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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9 Q1 H2 C; O1 W/ f现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?; Q$ U( P. ?7 c7 N) U
i+ S" \. ~2 z3 d" M& D! O我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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* b% I ], H T- {3 |* \; z玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!( R, ^$ H+ F, g: D
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。% v9 u& g! u& P1 M. V" q0 a9 b) h
0 G% G6 c; s+ X0 z这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。, ~# r+ Y' j+ b: |, ?6 y5 @
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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# ?% [9 _) j( S9 z: R" k3 E玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。, n- W( D. j+ O
# l' e- d- r/ Q5 z8 b& k" n再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。4 r* y, y% q$ j3 I! {4 Q
' _" p/ W5 P) h2 T如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。0 T; t% E) H3 @6 q, R. j7 y: {
. o* D2 G2 J8 ^6 X; M下注比例 本金结果
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- s! J$ o8 N& }' x1 L4 }4 A: p( y b- G0.1% 1.001902
+ n3 g. D. K5 R# o
3 p/ m' M, T! J0 S3 O; O8 @0.2% 1.003606
' D0 ^. y5 b, z, a( D" ]9 j0 ?# [6 F# w, T3 H0 I! p* {$ D ~8 f. T
0.3% 1.005113
8 o5 }3 T6 q1 I, l N; O5 W
( w& f7 I. s) ^# ]8 ?. G& X0.4% 1.0064214 E& ~' C9 L+ L+ y: T+ H: ?
0 S1 ~. f& U8 n" E4 S' g
0.5% 1.007528. x/ q F3 g; x1 _
0 d: C& `- w2 N: x
0.6% 1.008435
+ H" T9 C- H- T" B, `7 W; P! v* s( O% g
( N6 m0 Z7 {* l+ y" O0.7% 1.0091421 x8 R, E* ]( c" |
" A# C* P% U! G2 e3 X W& |
0.8% 1.0096468 `- }5 n7 F1 U- _
5 t3 s& J1 e7 q! y3 r% j! S7 _* L0.9% 1.0099492 g9 D5 e$ O( O: p% P/ s9 N
1 H8 r2 _3 X0 x" p4 W& s
1.0% 1.01005
( a1 u' d; H- \: w9 X' _# l* d' i) P/ _
1.1% 1.009949. y/ _7 b- _! r7 H' c
; f# b6 K& x( R8 S# n K1.2% 1.009646& o9 |. E+ r* \5 f
. i6 O9 a( ~5 j: k1.3% 1.009142
+ A3 }$ _: v) Y+ J% M& B- \! @! |% A) k2 U8 {
1.4% 1.008435/ \4 ]4 a5 S* |
( z: T2 T7 h% P" q' H0 l1 ? u9 Y1.5% 1.007528
2 k s: ~) ~/ k! D/ k* T; I& G5 D" g6 }3 g6 F0 V2 o
1.6% 1.00642
, e N$ ]# J# n {; S$ f" R# d* e
a; u* c( a, {% W1.7% 1.005112
2 v% _+ g$ @6 E% c! V1 l6 ~2 f1 A1 B7 J5 ^) C% E0 G2 [
1.8% 1.003605& h- {5 { F8 u* C* e3 o
# M9 y( T9 s; \, G( x( a
1.9% 1.0019
$ k \6 w, Q& v6 M8 |! d: [$ t% }+ f I
2.0% 0.999997# D, @) \' F# N; N1 ^" G
* P3 t# T5 G" C0 j2.1% 0.9978995 l- y3 D! X# E! |
. D" N7 z e: E9 j
2.2% 0.995605
$ [; y! I n" Z9 B8 q; Y# ~8 s9 d& B: R
2.3% 0.993118
5 ]! f: k+ y" U3 u
! U0 O+ n8 C) o( }' y2.4% 0.990439
& W$ t* P9 k7 V, ^$ P
4 Z' M4 u. V8 m# m2 @% @; P0 x2.5% 0.987569
5 z( k/ L3 m6 s6 V
2 ~$ J9 d, O+ [7 y0 {2.6% 0.98451
1 k8 e; i3 w( b B* w, G
( I, I ~; ]( S% @. b) h2 K2.7% 0.981264
, S h: b6 w+ S1 J9 q- b; l* w- n7 H
2.8% 0.977833
# S7 c* M. r8 K0 I' R2 y. ~" `/ X) y
2.9% 0.974219( g- t( Q u8 T3 a* u
" Q: f% f- Z& w: Q4 M- `
3.0% 0.970424; l$ E* n& a* N4 l- ^
4 U, j, l/ Q5 [) P$ k& p从上表可以得到一些结论:( D( B/ p3 N- o& Q
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利9 D" a! G9 S5 d" R5 k) O6 c
/ _: U0 [/ C" g2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!( K' M; X6 p. A8 A0 B: w' Z, z/ |
Q" j, r0 Z/ E! V. F" R3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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