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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
, A( b; m9 B: i( D
* C; r8 \0 Y; W$ ?" P会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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0 U/ `" D+ U3 F. n2 \8 M首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?: d/ e* {: G$ a; A) B) l0 [
% B* J# y9 T& w: F请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。8 \0 A6 M( i; d! ^
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!5 v1 ?; a# w: N% c. T2 G" N
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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; s% ]% v& r1 J }' K- P, Y我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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: R0 J) l( @5 a# b' M K玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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, E0 O' u$ G; D, _6 r玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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* S3 j' t8 Z5 i9 k. K: V这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。! g5 y2 q# V" ^! `/ M8 ^
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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9 Z f! k% c: B玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。, W. ]) f8 i$ k
( w/ w$ K; o5 A9 S0 H- C/ }! ^/ j# M再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。" j- {% l! i9 V
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。$ S/ Z" H; E$ r' W1 N* g' |$ o+ K0 y
" y0 _ d) u7 h但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。; f( }; l$ A1 D) ]5 `
! F8 O2 \6 G; D6 u3 h下注比例 本金结果& y! I5 W( J8 _0 |. d
# V3 N0 f' @$ _0.1% 1.001902
) Q1 @6 r& j* o( r$ D. K. ^9 r5 {: b# M
0.2% 1.0036067 v( F( _: Y# }
/ M3 v5 E: S: r' T8 b
0.3% 1.005113
- f- ~) V; P2 S0 |1 a8 m1 u# C8 y0 E3 V. T1 u# U e6 J
0.4% 1.006421/ w4 p4 n# `% F6 D. J: U, t
; t: x* C, u; O7 {: G0.5% 1.007528# {* ?% I5 y; P- `
2 C: S, Y7 }4 e* D6 f# m0.6% 1.0084352 N7 K6 b% G7 D5 f V) c
' a) X, H$ `( m, i) h4 u! M
0.7% 1.0091420 p, A, ` s" z$ z: t
. c+ Y* _2 q' p7 s- a' R0 m0.8% 1.009646
6 U6 `% i; V# ~: j8 i
: X2 v3 P# {( Z% Y' X" B* @- @0.9% 1.009949
% g) q7 \/ U' b5 P
5 G& n, Y9 I5 J1.0% 1.01005
: e) f. l9 W' Z1 V$ O+ W/ {' [9 G" Z! C8 |8 ]1 I* ?# x
1.1% 1.009949
0 e+ ]0 K+ n4 r. N* v- P- v, N8 U
8 f: `- m+ h& c9 s- @1.2% 1.009646
. p3 Q2 X$ X+ t4 `4 e7 a# X8 w9 }# G8 D# u: @1 _
1.3% 1.009142( ^# q7 u5 [4 n1 Y1 w$ p; g! T0 B+ C
, K! G3 K! q# R) r" M6 G2 J1.4% 1.008435
, | B) o' V7 Q- |, L f6 r; g
1.5% 1.007528/ B& c0 i3 F, F+ B4 a& I; e% S. z. G
4 R' j% g% W% s9 s1 S9 _7 D2 f1.6% 1.00642
% M$ H, ~: J. [- K; P6 {6 H$ g6 E0 c. S7 c
1.7% 1.005112
- X, h* g% K. i3 o+ Q/ Y- L/ ^* Z! q7 J/ Z8 S! W
1.8% 1.003605. n w7 _+ K8 f# Z8 @1 W
% O* ?( s: g z! f( g2 N1.9% 1.00193 m0 k/ J, Z5 n# e$ Z6 t' U
" h' `0 C" h: X' E* o P* V2.0% 0.999997
% t% B4 c" J7 c& f- F# l! `" e1 b+ r% e7 ^5 W; T( g$ q
2.1% 0.997899
7 R& W1 |* U' s% J2 {- M! d* q
; ]; h" u# {; Q- t2 u! f$ W2.2% 0.995605
7 l7 a( t9 K- f, k& T
6 f. C3 p9 y$ Y; ^8 A0 J2.3% 0.993118
- v8 ~6 ^. T9 {% m) J; U7 C) Q/ i3 n0 Z$ r
2.4% 0.990439/ }9 B; m5 d. e" F
O' z% H6 H" E2 b0 Z9 H+ J, D
2.5% 0.987569+ F# ^, Y5 F; P* b5 c% M
1 T3 P( A" l. i1 u0 g" M3 [ `
2.6% 0.984512 N3 q$ |5 ~' y; J" W1 I e5 s' ]
5 w% d' u6 T; c. R
2.7% 0.981264( O ~$ r/ q$ E5 W
* Q9 M) z, L( H/ a# c2.8% 0.9778337 G& b. x, {3 S0 L* ?& `; v& N
/ a6 z9 B& W5 O5 l5 x" I' w+ z
2.9% 0.9742198 i9 z: x5 I" V+ @* ?# c4 w; N3 e2 H
+ l2 b$ b7 l. m
3.0% 0.970424, f6 ~9 Q. J$ }9 c" k" p' ?- W7 {
) X7 F. X2 V9 [1 U$ g0 @# C, B从上表可以得到一些结论:
# U; \: k0 ?5 X- `! r) Q& c: f0 O8 N+ }2 h1 ~6 I1 v- P
1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!" ]! d1 U- a" o* O% Z9 {
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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/ l" ] |; W* O4 N0 m凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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" M H1 L `4 f: w3 }, }然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。5 a4 ]7 [+ ^; V; h) }
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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