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[lastpost] => 2651276 以太坊现货ETF即将出现?美国证券交易委员会将于本周宣布决定(转) 1716230526 小钱儿
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当前离线
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情:熊:美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的9 |3 S t9 y r
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总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所,相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆,因此带来了恐慌,9 f. v4 ~6 D% K
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方舟基金,灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。% i) Q8 W$ N& M4 _2 u
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3 I) r2 g. X& b 牛:(1)Fidelity,Blackrock都在持续增持比特币,其中blackroak增持3100枚,1 w) U+ S& k( z- x2 e5 M: |
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Fidelity增持1100枚(2)神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币,越跌越买,四天; n0 `* L4 [1 c: O: v$ a* ~- T; a
; p0 N: ]& y6 |. j7 Z6 p: X2 o' C内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入,如果未来的有一天,某个国家ZF
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0 a F, s p y+ U; F9 y" C宣布其持续买入比特币,可能就是准备抛售,见大顶的时候(3)usdt4天内增发30亿
, `5 g' a* E: |0 k( d; U- b( E, |; \5 W; I
枚,在过去的日子,以周为单位,USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻,我们回到% h6 p2 g* V- v
0 Y& r- f& z9 U0 c: Z4 ^5 y2 q( g1 ik线。首先看比特币:从日线上看,比特币在两个红色矩形之间(60000,72000)形成! _3 B4 G5 n, `' J! O) j
- [& R) f" F2 n7 F6 Q: e% ~& y) \震荡,振幅逐步收窄,很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18,死0 E) T9 h) r" c {, t& g' Q% n
, A* [) x& A4 j' ]叉一旦形成,上涨趋势会被破环,比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此,为了! [+ F4 F/ f* y( l d( l$ J
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避免死叉的形成,比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确4 ~5 ^9 c. a! T; ?2 F8 @
7 i) M: F" B" G& g1 J: F. z1 O定一个更高的高点,从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300,再次测试60000只是时; ^$ ]6 W/ }* d6 H. W7 y; F4 |
( P0 j- L' `9 h' s j: K, ]间问题。如果6万不保,下方HS矩形是大支撑,也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认
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为这是最坏的情况,不认可一些人认为去3万。
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0 ~5 Z8 J5 Z6 ~: `$ Z& P从4小时来看基本和日线一致,无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑, \- {, ` W/ {; J6 j
$ R, N9 q8 R: G2 e3 _,已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑1 a% i- Y; j3 @9 J! y
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位被多次测试,那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此,如果比特币不能快速收复73100,* b& r, {3 O! C
7 E) n/ X7 V5 C8 |6 Z& aEMA200跌破只是时间问题,下一步就看60000的表现。
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考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号,结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空,
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" e- o3 z& a! j. `* T3 X认为比特币至少会去次6万。4 g7 M n$ L. K; B) {
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! y& I+ r' q8 u/ X5 M/ Q1 {6 a
抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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