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[lastpost] => 2645053 香港证监会列出已批准现货比特币和以太坊ETF及股份代号(转) 1714475895 无名的赌徒
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当前离线
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情:熊:美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的
) o- ?* G$ I8 m' Z5 {- t; g0 t R; ~3 b3 j# s
总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所,相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆,因此带来了恐慌,
4 a- m( h8 x* `! S# I( ~" u7 R, l- [+ `
方舟基金,灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。9 p: c9 c; @$ Y# p2 X+ A
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牛:(1)Fidelity,Blackrock都在持续增持比特币,其中blackroak增持3100枚,7 }4 s+ F f- Z! w" @1 a6 Y
" s X# {/ M+ o0 lFidelity增持1100枚(2)神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币,越跌越买,四天* B1 J8 ]% z2 n( C- Y/ O
: y6 A$ k( W( F/ S
内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入,如果未来的有一天,某个国家ZF
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1 R! O% |- N& T' @+ |0 N: |宣布其持续买入比特币,可能就是准备抛售,见大顶的时候(3)usdt4天内增发30亿3 f0 V* z$ [2 e
/ n( q. C% X- e t) g
枚,在过去的日子,以周为单位,USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻,我们回到
( C3 `. P# U8 ?7 Y& {6 e0 z b( b$ _5 R8 n+ F
k线。首先看比特币:从日线上看,比特币在两个红色矩形之间(60000,72000)形成/ G5 X6 v8 O8 @1 d( \
% l2 J# ?4 B- d0 H3 j震荡,振幅逐步收窄,很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18,死
1 |+ x( O; Y$ e. t0 f7 }& [5 E" \. ~# b# F" L* a
叉一旦形成,上涨趋势会被破环,比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此,为了
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' m% B6 L3 x" n, C4 d' l避免死叉的形成,比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确7 R+ o& n- K+ Z
, n" A: \7 w( V- d0 B$ }定一个更高的高点,从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300,再次测试60000只是时8 `( |# t7 F, G$ d0 Z9 T- Y
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间问题。如果6万不保,下方HS矩形是大支撑,也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认! i# V* s' x C
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为这是最坏的情况,不认可一些人认为去3万。
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/ s/ @0 D. K* J( S2 X- `7 v从4小时来看基本和日线一致,无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑
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' r% x. j8 J* {, |4 g! ~8 \. ^,已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑; J5 L% P5 i0 e" `. t& h
9 I, w: D$ s; T位被多次测试,那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此,如果比特币不能快速收复73100,, B! m% f& j% _$ q5 q1 |
# _+ o: o. k- x4 O9 _+ L. @EMA200跌破只是时间问题,下一步就看60000的表现。
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/ ?4 ]# t4 r5 g; L" B考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号,结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空,, ?6 Y" X9 P- F- ~0 D& v
" R6 V# G: C; e/ K认为比特币至少会去次6万。
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- I" [6 Q2 ]3 I& K0 k2 n2 @
抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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