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[lastpost] => 2656874 规模、链上声誉和支付:加密货币三大杀手级能力如何构建新兴市场-转载 1718344442 德罗星
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当前离线
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总在线: 12111 小时
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首先回顾下本周发生的事情:熊:美国ZF开始将其查获的暗网电商丝绸之路的6 p- T/ C: D, W/ I
4 ~* `6 z7 D4 Z8 g总计30174枚比特币转向了交易所,相关人士认为这是抛售的前兆,因此带来了恐慌,
: Q8 Q: P6 k2 |, h0 A6 ?( J i% _
6 r. B& Q& n& q; o方舟基金,灰度基金都抛售了比特币。这导致币比特币一度跌到64500附近。: d7 R. {7 o3 V- S/ @' \& i- ^, L
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* a0 h. y* [- P- N" @ 牛:(1)Fidelity,Blackrock都在持续增持比特币,其中blackroak增持3100枚," o7 R. G3 |: I$ ]: P/ H
6 z; n1 X* k# U1 o+ M. D* AFidelity增持1100枚(2)神秘地址以100枚为单位疯狂购入比特币,越跌越买,四天
9 T( c" N3 r# K, w9 M" E: T5 E
+ {/ N: _: B" m5 |& G9 K内抄底2170枚。个人猜测可能是某国ZF在买入,如果未来的有一天,某个国家ZF
9 F5 ~ h4 v; c9 M4 R
6 D1 a( j7 ]* [- X/ b宣布其持续买入比特币,可能就是准备抛售,见大顶的时候(3)usdt4天内增发30亿* }0 \0 o0 ~7 F7 W. S$ i' z
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枚,在过去的日子,以周为单位,USDT增发都会带来币价大涨聊完了新闻,我们回到
/ B" U3 X$ s3 x1 d: {- i- @6 c( |9 M" H1 I5 j+ E. j1 s/ E6 t
k线。首先看比特币:从日线上看,比特币在两个红色矩形之间(60000,72000)形成) I7 R( J9 Q7 f8 A6 e! J! |/ u
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震荡,振幅逐步收窄,很快就要选择出方向。考虑HSEMA9逐步逼近蓝色EMA18,死
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叉一旦形成,上涨趋势会被破环,比特币将测试下方红色矩形6万的位置。因此,为了
L1 u% |4 `1 r" R2 e7 q# @$ u" Y+ h; k2 l7 y# Y; i
避免死叉的形成,比特币需要快速反弹。反弹只有突破绿色区间71300的位置才可以确
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9 ~9 k* u/ r5 }, M7 l! O, Q定一个更高的高点,从而走出下降趋势。如果无法站稳71300,再次测试60000只是时5 Y& Z( y+ r( f5 A3 \( C( L
; J y8 b" U' t+ X) j9 u间问题。如果6万不保,下方HS矩形是大支撑,也就是53000~50000的区间。个人认
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为这是最坏的情况,不认可一些人认为去3万。
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从4小时来看基本和日线一致,无需赘述。不过4小时的EMA200形成了一个比较强的支撑+ L5 o3 J3 A3 Z) B
4 ?$ `& _- B3 O0 ?9 s- O,已经测试4次进行了反弹。本人也多次在EMA200做多吃到了短线涨幅。但考虑一个支撑
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& e( w! Z9 D x" Y位被多次测试,那么其跌破的概率就越来越多。因此,如果比特币不能快速收复73100,
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/ j1 ^4 ~( \" AEMA200跌破只是时间问题,下一步就看60000的表现。
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考虑美股连涨5个月有短期见顶的信号,结合美国可能抛售的3万枚比特币。本人近期看空,
" _4 J! @. R0 q7 S( R) C6 p) `7 d! q! Z$ H# g) d* D8 l! _; J
认为比特币至少会去次6万。: b% N- T ]4 ~" G: b' E
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# y+ d( ~! @) f$ n. ~$ o$ W抛售量这个也是很多的了吧 |
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当前离线
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