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[体育菠菜心得方法] 预判水位及分析方法
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1#

一、如何测算预判水位

首先,要解读下什么是预判水位?预判水位顾名思义也可理解为预期赔付水位或者预期贴水。它是和理论盘型同步的、站在庄闲两家的立场,求出与理论盘型所对应的赔付水位。

在胜平负概率与盘口的数学公式中可以看到,除权后的数值与公式中设定的数值的比照,即决定了通过概率给出的盘口形态,也就是利用技术统计数据得出交战双方的实力差距。换算值越是接近公式的设定换算值,就意味着双方的实力差越大,那么理论赔付水位就应该越低,反之则越高。例如,1.20的盘型换算值高于半球的换算值1.00而低于半球/一球的换算值1.5,那么其合理盘型就应为半球超低水或者半球/一球满水。而得出这个盘口后,再与庄家开出的实际盘口对照,即可大致知道了这场比赛的盘口是否合理。

二、预判水位与实际盘口水位对照定义

定义一:上盘水位高于预判水位,属看好下盘格局,但临场下盘必须维持这种水位

预判。

例如:盘型半球中水,实际盘半球高水,下盘有优势,临场维持半球高水的情况

不降水,下盘利好。

定义二:上盘水位低于预判水位,属看好上盘格局,但临场上盘必须维持这种水位

预判。

例如:盘型半球中水,实际盘半球低水,上盘有优势,临场维持半球低水的情况

不升水,上盘利好。

定义三:上盘水位适中,低水方有优势,但临场低水方必须维持这种水位预判。

例如:盘型半球低水,实际盘半球低水,上盘有优势,临场维持半球低水的情况

不升水,上盘利好。

三、理论盘型与预判水位结合分析

前面我们了解了盘型分析与预判水位的概念和基本方法,现将两者结合应用配以实际案例进行分析说明。

例:热那亚4-2锡耶纳

时间:2009119

初盘:0.88半球/一球0.98

终盘:0.96半球/一球0.90

主胜概率:56.30%

平局概率:26.70%

客胜概率:16.99%

除权后(56.30%÷26.70%+16.99%))得出主队的让球概率为1.35(换算值)低于1.5(半/一换算值)高于1.00(半球换算值)。那么,它对应的的盘口应为半球超低水或者半球/一球中高水。如果给出半球高水或者半/一低水抑或超高水,则说明本场有造盘的可能,这个将在下面的热度分析中详解。

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2#
需要花点心思去理解啊
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这个得学习。
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4#
一时还看不太懂,先留个名
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
这个预判要达到什么预期目的?学习中
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方法还在学习中的
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7#
文章看不懂,还是要顶你{:4_99:}
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8#
谢谢楼主分享
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* P7 e8 L. q! p6 C% V谢谢分享,进来学习!
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10#
水位是很重要的参考
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