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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


9 Q/ \1 x) ^0 x: A& v3 R/ S% Q賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
4 g9 m" ?: \9 a3 ?8 [0 |10A23456789
1 B7 Q6 u3 D& f1 P-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
' t2 i$ r: M" ?; {. m9 y" n-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.1464 [1 b0 ^1 g8 e5 t$ C6 \
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
, w& K! S9 ~2 A+ j-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
2 S5 j9 w2 C# i" J7 [" T-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
& y+ J0 A& I9 W: l9 B& ?% @-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.0961 r1 q; h8 j! f0 b' ~0 l$ ]
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.0857 N+ H" j2 A# N  p
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074& L$ \' V- F# r  r3 p: I: t1 L$ o
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
* j3 N, L/ q& J! O! D. H1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
6 P/ B  i$ W6 }: a: Y* k2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
2 W* N! q0 s% E2 f  x3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036$ [$ ]! |; Z, Y! T
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
* U' W( I2 E8 T5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
1 Z- Z8 q% ?- ?3 K& u& I) U( y1 m6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
* C: ]: @. V( S  b7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.0076 y( b( Y. o# c# i7 Y$ I3 [
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
; g/ l' o9 G4 `9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
4 S2 C2 x; P& j4 G% U10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
# \9 D* O4 R! v5 V  a* t! A% F11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988' K2 M3 a+ g9 {# \) H
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
: j7 @2 Q+ W+ p4 P13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982/ V6 y2 n# q! e! c, B- x
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
  F, }& n, K9 E7 d15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
0 j7 O: r, {$ U$ @# H16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
' e9 J% i  w: I) w17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
: E5 {/ i' M& M9 P18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
+ n* ?7 H5 i3 v  M& o19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.9815 X/ o9 E4 V$ t9 P# s
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
/ A9 Z% m. [/ m: K21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986' @6 m, S( u6 h
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989& U# k5 ?! z8 ]+ c: K" S: U$ n2 a
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
: C/ ^2 W( d# l0 Y& H) q5 G+ {* U24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
$ E/ [1 N0 M4 b3 V, P1 E  E25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002+ z4 Z1 s7 c5 S( p: r

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


% R! Q4 E# r. [6 Y( \表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類8 `  L9 ^7 c" w6 n  v$ M9 F
10A234567894 `. I  K# R1 ^! a& V: D0 R9 s: L
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0952 i) T7 {% M: p# l" N6 n8 k/ @
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
/ m$ M$ [6 s$ B, b/ A5 ]! r-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
5 v* z5 r  k4 x* z" G: ^-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056# }0 g' L2 |9 q
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
% d7 f# Q( y0 ^! s# F-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032& h3 A. W- T8 k4 \( K
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
$ E) ?% M/ N8 C" W5 I6 H$ E3 }-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
8 B% X- g4 u, |0 q1 m00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
: @" r  K2 @! j1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
* N  E% ^, s% g! D, a; {* D0 X2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019) t# U& r3 ^: A% I! c; c" m
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.0287 `& \; X! F# D! h4 N
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
5 o1 u( U* v2 b% D5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.0449 Q' J. C( E/ j
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0513 r1 f3 S9 P8 l
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
8 A' k2 I* }4 [" h- {: A; z( l8 m8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063' Z/ S) \" J  h* h  p
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068& q" c( |0 c0 A! x0 o
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072% s' r7 C7 h* K( x* {5 D6 |
11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
) s* x8 k( {: i& g7 _9 Z12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079; l1 a. o3 p) t  V' ~
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
. h' x6 N/ d! a3 F: p( ]: ?2 c+ ]2 b14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084. e; t4 j! T9 k" y  j4 s9 A, C
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085! G. w) R7 @# D! Z6 \1 W6 y, X
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
3 {) i2 V* t4 W3 @17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
) \# q; y9 ?2 i$ [8 H; ~- t18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085: n. d% K1 Q2 C! M
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
) o9 P9 T7 t% F" I20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081* x/ o0 }. M+ f* Y& N
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078: P. ^; T, e& G$ ~1 |, T# ]
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
( T1 N9 n8 l! x3 G6 S! R  W" n23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071! U& Z8 u* O* W' Y* V: j
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067+ w" y2 o. Z2 p9 i6 I( H
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.0625 W) ~( V  z) i: T3 `

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

. t7 r) d! Y$ x  A! Q
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類9 y1 h1 S5 d5 o  ]( n0 i& O
10A23456789
5 q6 v+ Q/ Y; u, p4 c7 l; k-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
$ `8 \! z" x; ?3 T-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
0 z' J3 z6 C9 B) y( X) F7 o-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
1 p. m$ g2 E) y! n8 [' n-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
4 s2 B, j9 F; a7 o-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180- q1 p0 z" D/ t) G- Z$ r: w, V
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
* T- o, v7 I8 j6 E* d-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
3 ?6 r% _/ e% [4 ]# m-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.2172 s9 s7 n4 n& ?1 T
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228/ x( r8 g( S0 S/ \" ?2 Z4 {7 v
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
: F8 ?, n3 b% Q, v- f& v8 d2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.2494 x) a& ~/ g  t) B8 \# X. K+ @/ u
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
8 Z& B+ m8 V$ U; u: D( M4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266; ]9 B  x& Q3 a2 [* a
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274) H; w3 |+ Q2 o: y4 W8 T8 }
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
; t. D9 s* }) d$ j7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
/ B+ t$ I+ Z' i! x7 O7 N2 }1 k8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
$ A! [5 \2 `% ?; D. N7 M9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298& K+ x; ^0 O* n- E, ^. q3 U
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302& r; a5 B* V% D2 u3 Y
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
: i3 C7 V0 r. ?0 F, s  G$ T12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
0 a3 E& ~& f9 y/ ~13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3107 v) E% w" A; w( g2 z, R, U& h0 t
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.3112 L- g5 c; Y' V
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
! O; g; N$ [& _/ f: |, Q0 h' h16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
# c, h5 b/ [, q: v! G: M$ _/ L17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
! V: ?; E# M7 s( j4 K) S5 \- O18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.3086 i, t& j. g3 |/ _) t. M$ a
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.3057 O4 @0 G* b  f" U# r
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.3012 H- M1 A" D4 D# u3 E$ q2 v
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
0 F4 a* v% T" D' `22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
( z1 ?# o2 ]: g4 i' x3 m23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
/ d: k$ ?& g* X* e6 K2 M0 _24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
& E) O( G1 s, `, H0 S5 s25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.2729 S; f' q; i2 ]( Y$ _( Y- W* z

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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