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[虚拟币交流]
Glassnode报告：比特币减半前牛市是否已经结束？（转）
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比特币的最新价格跌至6万美元以下，引发了人们对于这种资产今年是否会比预期更早结束其惊人的牛市行情的疑问。
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然而，Glassnode的首席分析师詹姆斯·切克（James Check）表示，牛市的投资者几乎没有什么好担心的。8 h* D& G* E: |! B' Y6 _, k1 j
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比特币的回调：小幅下跌还是灾难性暴跌？
* Y- r4 B% O0 c6 w9 u9 x在周五发布的一段视频分析中，切克回顾了关于短期比特币持有者的各种链上指标，这些持有者是在五个月前首次购买他们的比特币。3 o' c$ r. N: _: m; S
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首先，比特币的短期持有者市值与实现价值比（MVRV）比率现在正重新接近1.0，意味着其未实现的利润和损失已经达到了盈亏平衡点。这一水平在牛市回调后可以作为支撑，但在熊市期间，当大多数比特币持有者处于亏损状态时，也可能成为主要阻力。4 r5 B t- B0 ^0 F, t! h, p
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切克说：“小幅下跌是好事。在2023年，我们进行了几次这样的重新测试。如果我们认为这是一个弹性的上升趋势，我们应该期望短期持有者的成本基础能够维持在58,000到59,000美元的区域。”+ J1 N: T* E8 @
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同样，短期持有者的出售利润比（SOPR）最近也跌破了1.0，意味着短期持有者现在开始意识到亏损多于利润。如果SOPR显著跌破这一水平而没有重新上升，这可能是未来持续熊市的一个信号。
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. s% s- Z- i3 b截至本周，短期持有者实现的亏损已大幅增加——这表明新买家在伊朗和以色列间冲突加剧的消息中恐慌性地亏损出售。$ A! a5 o( n$ o7 \
* W3 A j% V% K5 x% Y切克补充说：“这本质上是你作为一个逆向投资者想要看到的。作为一个逆向投资者，你有点希望看到人们在错误的时间做错事。”" B7 {& g+ Z5 L% x9 J6 w+ x
8 K& t( Q: `" H, `几天前，切克指出，如果比特币的价格跌破58,800美元，其价格可能会变得‘顶重’。在撰写本文时，该资产的交易价格为64,000美元。: D. q2 O& Q0 t( Y- R
, o- s* q) [9 E2 |' I+ E比特币的长期动能
0 f$ ]4 b6 z, h8 Y+ t! m4 g其他指标，如AVIV动能指示器表明，比特币的价格动能在更长的时间框架内保持积极，只是在30天的时间框架内经历了一次“适当的重置”，以进行冷却。& f! k7 Q7 @3 ~$ g; l
% @' Z# f! g) J& ` Z关于比特币减半本身，切克认为其财务影响可能被过分炒作了。与比特币期货交易量、现货交易量和ETF交易量相比，每日发给矿工的BTC只是市场的一小部分。( v1 }% j3 a& E( S: [7 Y
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他说：“减半的规模，现在更多的是一个叙事游戏，而不是实际情况的考量。”; f0 h6 M: r" D/ D* o
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