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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?' i5 m* L \0 Y) Z$ S- O d$ r
9 J. F3 z z# d0 {" E; ]/ n \9 P会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!( \* |$ Z0 w( Y7 p& {4 ^& a
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?" C) k$ T& Q% ]+ G
9 a: ]4 u/ [; _* f) i请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。0 \* M& r0 ~& ~; |& ^+ w
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!( H0 z1 m- Y/ ?3 E: _
4 k7 _ X- L: R) p例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。) g; G6 Q) w' H% C2 i
$ I1 j# l3 y8 |: e8 L现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?3 ^2 F ~& C1 Y$ P% g! ~$ k
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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' _2 l5 @5 b7 S4 Z1 l! l- W# k玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。& v& k2 h4 H, E+ Y
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?0 A- r+ m5 w. Q& g, Y- D3 z# M5 g
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。0 K) a1 y3 e2 c$ L2 a0 D+ K
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。0 |! X) e( b5 S# x0 K) r Q
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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" W+ z% n0 Z5 Q* P% g" d- B但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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8 n& j& }* L% a3 z8 a2 A$ E: H下注比例 本金结果; b) t e' h8 j. _, A& k: ]# A
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0.1% 1.001902
1 D8 M# N) x6 l; k, X. r0 Y8 ]3 R; G2 Y/ t8 j& A( h0 _& z3 }' J
0.2% 1.0036067 r# @) R+ g" ]7 l; U
5 u$ {& r% y8 j* i
0.3% 1.005113, T+ O# ?( ^/ v
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0.4% 1.006421
8 o+ n6 A F4 X. }
( s. H; Y# Y2 A0.5% 1.007528
4 T6 `* q5 D9 `$ w7 U
, T$ t) D3 P A6 `0 \0.6% 1.008435% a8 R$ q& I$ T7 N
! T/ y7 ?( D; G6 E! F0.7% 1.009142, w3 [* q* ^3 m: I W r, S, O1 d
3 S# j% i7 R8 P6 Q9 } d C
0.8% 1.0096463 p2 ? S+ o* T4 @
1 U M: U- r" `( x
0.9% 1.009949
" m: S! q8 R3 s) Z2 g0 T
4 D$ J- I9 R D: `) j: N. F' N1.0% 1.01005
1 z, q4 O" _& i l* q& |4 s: S7 J6 c- _3 P) [/ y" J9 S
1.1% 1.009949
6 o; ^) C3 Y6 @ E ~! g, z+ ]* Y5 n: c8 E
1.2% 1.009646: ?9 T1 v5 k7 O7 ~" s
, T$ O' t& A8 B/ G5 D3 N
1.3% 1.009142
6 d+ g: ]% w* W& U+ P5 f* Y
' G, h; e+ G9 F& G: o3 G1.4% 1.008435
( `% l* n2 h- [8 e! x" W* E$ I/ j. q! w {1 y( |; i
1.5% 1.007528$ M. z) P" c8 U" D
8 @+ K1 Y. T! c4 ?9 a; X5 _5 V1.6% 1.00642
0 b6 M# P% t" f, R0 F, }# U" H7 ]5 R' m( ~" X3 n4 D
1.7% 1.005112
* ]/ Z0 y$ \& M! }& W4 j+ @, O& s% X3 m9 S. K1 V( n2 O6 N) n
1.8% 1.003605
4 |" @( S2 {; y6 z9 B
6 ~% Z) |. P- ]$ T# Z; U B1.9% 1.0019( m8 n/ S% u7 |0 Y! V! W* w' v/ Z
' `" V% \2 z5 a ]# e2.0% 0.999997" n1 g/ S V+ f% u/ i" \9 t
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2.1% 0.997899) M/ w- E9 a3 W& v# a
, D! g: d. }- Q' I% ?2.2% 0.995605 {- F* Q, A" ~* U- ~& z
- _, ^7 h- C9 E( z2.3% 0.9931182 R& V9 u/ k; ^6 t, ?/ S
% O% P# r. X; D7 D( z( M, J6 c
2.4% 0.990439
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( g: a, |8 \7 M2.5% 0.987569
* n' Q" E' g( |3 _
& H5 V% u8 l7 D2 {2.6% 0.984510 ^8 ~: i/ P: k- y
! _6 x( R- J, ?- V4 [- K
2.7% 0.981264
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6 g2 X1 E8 W3 f, E' Z2.8% 0.977833# k7 V9 d* d w6 ]/ d" H/ J
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2.9% 0.9742197 D. f: H2 [( u3 E3 ]) ?
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3.0% 0.970424
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从上表可以得到一些结论:
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- ^- C' o! D( q5 { v9 u1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!8 p. ?0 c# A8 \# S# L3 r
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈) p1 y+ S" ]. @1 p
, e; V2 Y- r/ k! C5 P凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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9 _6 V4 h( U6 m! b" J. F4 Q然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。7 c. U T% T: `8 H
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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