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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?8 z: e7 v( }% X, F0 ~* b+ `& t
: x, P0 k4 M; {会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?) [! v0 O7 p( u* | g! P. j
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。- h4 `' _1 Y( u
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!$ n: O9 K; Y' |" r1 N1 G
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。, O: y) u5 u! U! R" E1 ?
- z' c5 |8 [& d m现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?" D) w# I- D: z
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。8 F' k- r' }! g( m! o
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!4 _5 v/ k: J; z7 U6 {
9 E- r4 N0 g5 h玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。( Z6 c' ?# j) D0 u
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。2 O% I& g: C3 g2 Z B7 C
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接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?: V, Q3 C5 d3 Q1 H1 O
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。/ J& {& c( U* H4 p* r
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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! t0 A8 ~ E" g: j6 u# g! ?但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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) L/ R- h- g5 m I/ @' |- ]下注比例 本金结果) q; ~1 P8 }" i' J7 i6 a, w$ ~
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0.1% 1.001902
4 A! ]5 O% w0 R! Y6 k0 M9 g
& v6 b* Q0 a$ B4 {8 `0.2% 1.003606# K( E- B0 ]0 M+ ~) f6 X3 ]
% e+ z5 l7 D6 |; |
0.3% 1.005113
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$ [/ h/ d% Q. z- P0.4% 1.006421) h, x5 [* _! C( x: a/ l
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0.5% 1.007528
3 {3 C( C3 B/ S% R$ [
3 ~! X+ r. f1 |) y& F* m0.6% 1.008435
% X5 x- ?# `; N+ U
- b( V4 ^" X) ^+ S0.7% 1.009142
: U- z4 [7 S: H
, {; E) }% z1 x0.8% 1.009646
9 o7 }" q. `" u, X" W2 }8 H2 D9 f% ~0 ], L1 {, I ?3 H+ r1 Y( ^
0.9% 1.009949
/ ? v" y0 Y% S) R$ \9 N0 {5 z8 _7 R- n2 H! n$ V- g$ F
1.0% 1.01005
) O. R, {: I* y/ Z1 D! U8 N
7 E) g; K6 v) `5 F' u) }1.1% 1.009949 ~) H: p2 _" q7 s4 ?7 U) V
; H8 y% D& u5 T) _- u* K
1.2% 1.009646: V2 A- Q+ ? V$ _2 T% t/ L
6 H- w; ?9 Z3 }$ U8 L7 G
1.3% 1.009142' ?# e3 R4 t; m' p7 h4 Z1 p7 S
3 C* g5 O3 q/ q6 J1.4% 1.0084359 S/ ?) o0 ]7 l9 ]% Q7 u: J
% W& [( f3 z7 Q+ ?1.5% 1.007528
4 z0 S2 ^1 Q- k3 s" X1 B+ e4 C4 p
! O/ R+ t% k7 J) l% w1.6% 1.00642
+ Q9 z2 u @: n+ B: V. b7 q/ a( r- @: N1 a, V8 G% @! p0 T
1.7% 1.005112/ S! N8 C: ?+ f; m
) z8 @+ G0 s6 e9 u# {1.8% 1.003605# Y) M5 D0 X! i
. q# ?! } j* G {
1.9% 1.0019
2 }$ e$ h6 g1 s1 }% L4 p/ e" {5 q& U$ Y
2.0% 0.9999972 \+ b. |4 i$ I% ?6 i6 k' {
+ A [: o$ E2 W$ E9 C2.1% 0.997899
+ T0 c: P. F# }) }* A( }
3 n0 C* s! J& B1 e- ] f$ d/ D7 Q2.2% 0.995605; F0 m+ ]7 t0 K2 {9 p
8 @4 c' n, ?2 \! [. Y
2.3% 0.993118
+ G, L7 F$ u" ]7 S) U5 C* L) U% _$ [+ c& n; a
2.4% 0.990439/ X, I K0 c! I
6 x8 j" O2 x% [* H: C
2.5% 0.987569: c# {9 @' A' b1 i Q. O
, n: G2 I, r% F! s' T2.6% 0.98451: ?# {" F7 i4 u1 k, [
- O& I: V% Y; d3 F2.7% 0.981264
% k/ \4 E8 p% Z2 r" v: K/ w4 K6 n5 v- [; E0 n
2.8% 0.9778332 r2 f: O1 Z$ h) f# [
4 r( G# Q Z( M! c. {
2.9% 0.974219
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3.0% 0.970424% a4 n3 `" x* X
- d$ F' {1 w4 H6 R1 [从上表可以得到一些结论:3 }, c. |+ ~8 A1 H; [' v: ^
* i' O% J- K7 t1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!
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: l! Z O' F0 v; h+ g3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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: n9 H6 ]! u) Z- ~* X* H7 a- M4 @" @( s凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...& C; H9 m7 l4 W9 X/ D9 p
, V% t7 I. b* a1 {2 p" M* H a然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。. p0 ~' d/ M7 ^3 |3 [
* N" c. p; o% k以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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