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农历龙年大年初一，比特币市场迎来价格“狂飙”的春节行情！& v3 s/ w+ U" k8 H( L9 t3 \
( a7 k: w" l+ k O3 h7 o2月10日，比特币价格延续快速上涨，北京时间10日凌晨2时一度突破48000美元/枚大关。有投资人士认为，在天朝农历新年前后，比特币市场历来都有一定的“春节效应”，过去9年的数据表明，春节期间的比特币价格均实现不同程度的上涨。+ k6 W, q5 A! D u
+ c+ C2 D( L8 ?1 a6 [& x' {今年1月11日，在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准现货比特币ETF挂牌交易后，比特币价格快速冲高一度接近49000美元/枚大关，随后又快速回落直至近期有所回升。与此同时，美国证监会批准11只比特币ETF上市交易也引发了一些该国投资业内人士对新的市场风险的担忧，美国证监会主席此前曾警告说，比特币仍然是一种“不稳定的资产”，投资者应该保持警惕。
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春节比特币大涨% s: H- ?$ c# w( |
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2月10日凌晨，在农历刚刚进入龙年大年初一之时，比特币价格实现快速上涨，一度站上48000美元/枚，这也是1月11日以来首次。而在过去5日，比特币上涨幅度接近10%。
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8 d3 c3 T5 D! g9 S! }据《香港经济日报》援引加密货币投资研究机构“10x Research”创始人兼研究主管马库斯·蒂伦（Markus Thielen）此前预测，过去9年，若在农历新年开始前3天买入比特币，并在农历新年开始后10天卖出，都会获得不同程度的上涨。据其统计，过去9年中，2021年的涨幅最高，其间上涨最高达24.3%，即使是表现最差的2019年春节期间，也有3%左右的涨幅。, d) w4 g4 m8 y2 f" N6 K
1 E* e# M) C* w. e4 h4 K/ J8 J" ]据马库斯此前表示，随着农历新年的到来，它也带来了对比特币的看涨情绪。他预计比特币价格可能在未来几天飙升至48000美元/枚，这得益于其在这个节日期间的历史表现。% W" I5 ]3 D7 u; @! K+ v: R, Z
$ r I# d" M- s' G除了农历新年行情以外，比特币也有其他上涨因素。彭博数据显示，2月7日，比特币ETF已连续9个交易日实现净流入。分析预计，比特币即将于今年4月减半（即开采出新区块的奖励减半），或将在未来几周内积聚动力，有助于推动比特币突破5万美元/枚重要心理关口。) i! C; w9 l0 M* N1 X, M
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美国方舟基金掌门人“木头姐”凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）此前预期，比特币价格在最乐观的情况下，到2030年可能达到150万美元/枚，这比她之前100万美元的预期整整高出了50万美元/枚，这也是当前比特币价格的30多倍。而即使是在悲观情境下，伍德也认为，比特币价格可能会攀升至25.85万美元/枚，为当前价格的五倍多。
+ s+ b6 i' d5 c; ~# y7 r* z' h) V6 J- b, O1 T: [2 V R
然而，此前摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)再一次重申他的观点，即比特币是什么都做不了的“宠物石”，此前他表示，这种货币是“去中心化的庞氏骗局”。戴蒙估计，比特币有其用途，但其中包括洗钱、欺诈、避税和其他金融犯罪，这些犯罪每年转移的资金超过1000亿美元。. w! @6 {. o2 l! H, l9 F
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