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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
" U' \, h2 @. I6 s7 j/ S# B+ F) b* {/ p. A! r& Z& z$ ?; Q2 e" s
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
8 D. s; p# w4 c& ?; q* e& Y
0 q: c f: c% x- i7 L其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?( S6 ?1 |0 r$ p' c5 ^9 u
: K2 `+ R' l4 H* K4 ]
请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!; Y8 y( h) ~* d+ W, ~% r. x* ^
+ U- [ f8 v! x1 O1 E6 R0 C例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。. s) v0 v# `- b6 b, k
$ z: e: Z7 G, f2 j
现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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0 S/ p# z8 u0 a8 w- T) s; g$ u我们先来看一个0和的游戏。! b5 x4 w& i7 r0 C( ?8 o# J
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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9 _, T( v4 U( j8 q玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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% Y' j: Q! h2 m; L: w0 a# Y( x这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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7 H( \8 x& Z$ a' Q3 r+ p接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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- m& t% u$ z2 J; _( J4 o玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
: ^; _& \ X# u, X1 q
: b0 M3 U& J& m6 C2 G! q1 }" k再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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% B8 B4 N# I! ~! W! K: Y) o: s如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。9 p, R/ V4 c6 X- F+ n
+ V. o* ~1 Q a+ u但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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下注比例 本金结果2 R) F0 t2 S% b, v- S. G. G; m
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0.1% 1.001902
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, Y% B7 }) Q* Q4 F/ I: i# |0.2% 1.003606. h8 C+ M# u* k( G! C' ?3 G2 {. G6 K
. h" ~& Z6 ]5 p8 S. B- C0.3% 1.005113
2 V0 s& k( I' v" e5 z; }5 Y
, y- z- A' g. h0 X6 V. a% T. d0.4% 1.006421
9 u0 Y. Z: n3 h: ]7 T- _2 x, [9 J% U* f! M& W
0.5% 1.007528
" I4 f5 m' G! b/ j7 O1 M, h* N y) ?% \
0.6% 1.008435; P K5 c% a6 G, L, ^
3 _. l$ U( J& W% B" \8 L/ p
0.7% 1.009142
. X/ U7 M9 w2 {' m& d+ {, }5 R$ o5 s' ^: N. y$ ]3 {. ^/ y
0.8% 1.009646
( I3 z( I3 k C6 E, r- |2 |: x" B
z" r2 ]1 H$ A0 `$ }) ~0.9% 1.009949
- S5 ]) m5 @9 R8 W5 m, [: r3 o1 Y! _- M4 @. V& D
1.0% 1.01005
2 |8 K" S- \! k
" c6 Z' Z" ~/ P. P: Z1.1% 1.009949
+ t/ H. X; O* c& s( ~
$ ]3 r& X/ n2 X8 |1.2% 1.009646
9 J6 @7 X F1 }" R
# i& A% I/ N* O1 h8 `1.3% 1.0091425 b% A! v( f) R. v8 x' \
: x; j1 P! x/ p' F4 c4 D( F
1.4% 1.008435% J5 @1 m) m3 W" g0 X2 i
( Z+ x0 X& k, f2 Q" k: J. P
1.5% 1.007528
5 W! j7 z- V4 ]/ N( E) o& S: q* L8 m8 L+ j' r' q7 k7 B: J T
1.6% 1.00642" \9 g0 U) G/ O8 `! n% f
4 F0 }4 r: v2 u5 n
1.7% 1.0051120 L' K' U" p5 q( W2 S8 }) }
, \9 l; a8 i# C" b) d, L, c
1.8% 1.003605
7 S" M7 f, E" s/ G
* Q4 ?4 M5 V) W+ v* v- {1.9% 1.0019
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( h; r# t' M: p8 l2.0% 0.999997
5 n& M2 d! V4 P- L b1 P8 w
# {8 r: N; x1 ]' i' }2.1% 0.9978992 ~) G1 F' z, J A% r, S
( M) ` ~- J; F h. N9 ?% L! C
2.2% 0.995605
. ]' @: Q* J4 I$ P; y
l; Q6 Q% [8 N) @ ~2.3% 0.993118. e/ x' l' s: U& K2 `+ a2 c8 y a) c
( O" W* Y7 c5 v2.4% 0.990439
4 h6 E5 X7 `) B4 E/ a7 A; U# W
" Z5 i3 T5 L+ i, [$ I2.5% 0.987569
( K% x5 I t* H* ]
4 Y2 B1 _4 E# ?8 C3 ~2.6% 0.98451
0 V2 B* h( `# r0 g* a* ^$ p- M+ Z: d4 }- T
2.7% 0.9812648 U- D9 d0 ] J- @+ v
7 i+ z: x+ O( x! a" T3 k" u2.8% 0.977833
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2.9% 0.974219. E5 X4 r W- r2 l6 r
& b" k+ w* |- x6 i5 @) o" V3.0% 0.970424
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" m1 x# C# ~; X9 s% F; T1 J从上表可以得到一些结论:
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! I- t4 _' ^2 M9 P- Z1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利
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. {# g% ]+ V0 ^2 v3 l2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!) F) x2 | d' R7 G" D9 O6 g# [6 Q
* V0 n. }: J: _+ p8 T3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈 T) _3 o+ v1 ~5 g
2 o. Y4 W# O) @/ ^凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...; S/ {; U% P- d4 c5 f
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。9 Q* I7 @3 V- t5 Q
" H$ M$ h& I. r2 N1 c/ Z' A以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。6 V' _5 e) c* t9 f
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