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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
4 j0 V% }/ z$ Z' e. A$ r4 ]) \ _: z0 ^4 U5 L' ?5 V
会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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V# @ q4 {% w* t, O$ `( A其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!& p4 ^$ \/ {9 P0 \4 N
% {5 ^ m$ J5 D D" @9 ?; a首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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+ F2 O6 H5 L, j1 \5 k: e请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。' e' Y* R9 Q$ K" X, ^: G
6 q [7 z G7 V答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!) F" b4 U0 z% ]0 q: S
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。3 a& D1 w5 V8 B5 Z
3 _+ T. E' l% R/ I) E& p现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
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3 I/ _% k# o V" W玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!
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) [( h8 M# [5 r; D; H7 |玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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0 F" E# V [1 }% E; B3 I' r这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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6 O. E3 X4 \5 H7 y" G( X7 h9 t+ ^接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?, p Q1 v0 W& N( |9 f: k
3 l5 y+ @7 f% I" }% ^5 Q玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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4 [9 B( K4 ^0 _: [2 d$ |再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。4 F/ w5 H- }2 V+ `
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。/ O0 {( M/ I, c
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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6 Y6 I! K9 S/ J" j# k# K9 Y2 f- ^下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.001902 Y; O! U$ s( `; `" u& e
( N! I1 O) o- a' |
0.2% 1.003606
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0.3% 1.005113
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; O# m5 f( k7 I* ^6 F0.4% 1.0064216 k$ J2 J T% o. `
1 ^1 ]3 e2 p0 s* L) z: {9 d0.5% 1.007528
3 S& [" o5 y, ]+ V' _
; [* q" w5 M) m1 [5 f4 e! `0.6% 1.008435
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0.7% 1.009142
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0 l9 \0 x# M `8 A: [0.8% 1.009646
' s" R1 m# t% G! s0 o+ H
4 g% g; p2 Q' H5 Z9 T' F/ K. f0.9% 1.009949& k& U! {, h0 E- Q: s- z2 p
' v" x9 ]! v/ p1.0% 1.01005 f" G& }) M" e8 I* m; V- u$ y. L
; m$ `9 a6 d, i: U7 i
1.1% 1.009949
! k) X. V$ u/ _9 i0 s) k! W S4 {5 K* C4 ^" I7 C$ v) o% }
1.2% 1.009646
D8 N$ G$ v4 a4 d r% B. G3 {1 Z; Y: P
1.3% 1.0091427 C3 b5 }# G; w4 \! g0 x
8 s8 s) l5 T0 V2 U/ G4 ^6 k1.4% 1.008435
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+ c' C3 |' {: o s0 Q2 |1 k1.5% 1.007528
& d. L: f% }$ b, }% o) d1 H" B% ^+ [# E+ q
1.6% 1.00642+ ^# E7 u* a$ b7 a& m" L8 W m
6 f' X" C) x- ~7 V6 S# [1 `' B1.7% 1.0051122 C* B, _; U) }; `
- i. [+ X) M. |
1.8% 1.003605! m% V# |3 q; S! Z* V0 s
# A; W" R$ Q% _0 G9 L8 P1.9% 1.0019- N; d% ]8 }; ~# z1 S
- ~) z" h/ h! U$ i9 \( d2.0% 0.999997
8 s3 M5 i3 d" y
$ S7 ~/ x4 y; p: M* [4 W: }" P2.1% 0.997899- h/ {; {6 W; Y9 Y& ~ d$ W% ~
# D( O) S/ W/ l1 |! v( V" Q2.2% 0.995605
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2.3% 0.993118
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2.4% 0.990439% K) Y- R5 ?0 j% c" @
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2.5% 0.987569) N; o. j1 a! L5 i
$ T0 A6 T# ]! Z! M# Y, V2.6% 0.98451
$ S% g! B/ @& Q8 ~! t
. A1 A. L" S4 k3 o2 J, q2.7% 0.9812646 e% Q* ^! ], E( B3 q
! g- | e4 C1 a# q2.8% 0.977833# B( K0 x6 ~( t# e B% @
* a, A0 c8 l0 _* _1 p( a
2.9% 0.974219
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8 Z. ] }" p" Y% s$ l+ a/ G, j3.0% 0.970424
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% _+ }, @# F3 H2 Y3 K* }从上表可以得到一些结论:
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利 A* ]$ q! `6 s6 x Y
/ d( F$ s c, V8 f7 q4 T4 V' c2 h2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!' n3 P% ~1 ?. o" B: b" V
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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5 _4 l7 ]5 C7 F: z! L; {$ U凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。5 b7 Y! N3 p! |; v' u
+ g, `5 N* G# _" v6 _以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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