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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


( n1 K: Z) [& I- V  q; r% I3 e賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類  w) R# o, r- G
10A234567894 O" Z% F  ~; \- F* {; j
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159$ _$ g" G5 C+ X  k# L5 }: ?4 ~
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.1463 e/ J; s. A. L
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.1332 k& y' f* B7 K5 j0 U
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
. t+ m+ C, P. X8 [: R, {6 J-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
- ], K& b2 s' u# X1 a# g-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
$ }9 q7 n1 ?2 B. O. A  K-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
. X+ P$ H: r  V/ w4 B( J-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
! f4 }& P; E, j$ F8 t0 k0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.0640 Q* B# G: N% `0 X3 `1 E
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
, k7 G0 b1 {8 O* q7 y5 e0 M2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
7 s7 N$ X: h# T! Y) ~& E- z' Y3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0361 i7 R8 L" s) F; |3 _) z# H( o# p
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
3 G3 b0 V: m* E& F3 _5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020$ v7 p% a" d% b. Y4 N+ H8 z
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.0133 ?+ A! g5 o* ]" S& ^" w% r- |8 I
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
! n6 W+ X, q- V# h7 ]4 N: Y% W8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
& _% e0 Y* u) ?+ f% e) I5 {9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
5 y/ x% {) s' H5 T10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992% `5 T: n8 V, t/ \0 ?
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
/ o9 X: {; V! f12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
) N( H8 a9 T! m  [+ F13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.9829 q/ ^6 T9 S/ j  U% o
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
9 s: F) F' f8 u15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979% l* d; L$ d- v, {
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
/ a6 k- z2 O) D17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
6 Y. N8 S5 J& ]2 ?' h( ?5 X. V18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.9794 |+ `5 u- k) P! A
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.9816 p% u7 w5 M, \& P9 t; |
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
9 l. o( {5 A+ \4 P4 v9 u% M" @21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986, O  |! x5 q8 z* v
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
: G7 B# z# E* F6 j1 P  P23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
/ f: [' n( X( ~; w* j4 l- w9 L' r24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
" D& r" D. C. ?& a6 t) x25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
9 Y" S/ @/ W  l8 E1 P

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


, \' _, ?, p4 h" N9 l4 S$ _7 f/ d- r* U' h表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
$ Z0 X% B" p7 ]- X! ]* l10A23456789
4 i! S: \- O/ d. `# o  a-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0957 }5 _9 G8 M, s' ?8 c- c& ^1 O
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
2 l9 X9 S( ?: Q- F9 d-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
6 l5 \8 ^: t- |9 R-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
8 [- T8 W' j; F- F8 B( R- l-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.0448 ~8 D* c+ J; K8 Y: b* a# c
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
5 X; |2 E6 Q# ]: C% d; f" q+ q  p-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.0213 R( G1 k! `' U3 r' `7 D, T
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
) M) b9 C& ^; q- |4 z/ ^4 X/ @, K/ x  c00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
9 I( P" G: X0 |5 \1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010; p; O% m& S# @7 y/ i# A$ Q
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0194 `7 Y6 u+ e+ S+ d- {
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
5 h$ R3 t4 z2 N% n9 U$ x4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
1 F* D- \" p+ U) i# u- }3 B5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.0443 H0 v3 q% D4 g) j- z
6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
; w( A+ S4 V/ _  e  P; K7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0573 F- ?* _7 Q8 ]& @; T5 t
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063  [7 I2 u/ N: f) J0 k+ @- ]: W
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068! b; n2 z4 z8 q! F
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
' a3 x& |5 C9 G" X) a2 ^3 J11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076  |& [: e0 H; n  M' o
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079; ~  b+ y6 o6 u0 W" w  J9 q
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
5 K8 o+ ?: C) D14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
$ e/ Q7 r! w! n- j& |; r% M( L15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
3 Z1 R( W2 y/ q# C% g# R; |16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085% ]1 K* g9 y) }  B2 {
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
2 X1 l3 ?/ [' n, u3 K18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085$ |1 p& H! t1 M
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
$ \+ L5 k+ l( L( J; E! P20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
, m2 c% A' X' g# ~, }21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.0788 e: Z- ~& W' N- U( I
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.0759 m4 g) p3 G& o, ?3 G9 W
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
6 U1 F# e  S1 h+ Q+ Z$ S3 i. U24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.0673 V& L  V3 f3 c: [$ e
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
- N% H& H8 N0 R1 d9 _2 w! w: T

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


1 r5 s, W9 k9 t4 h押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類$ C2 ~) G/ c# _4 R8 \7 W4 G
10A23456789' y" H) P$ I# l7 \/ z+ j( F" O
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
, D. r8 F) n2 {) ^-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
$ d/ F) z. J0 J; B7 O: h-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152; D2 s4 r" p, f9 N5 J! O
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166' j7 @) \! `8 r  Y
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
0 t6 F3 W) f1 ~- I+ d4 V4 E-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193% _' G) g3 Z; G0 p$ t9 Q
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
  a' V7 i/ U; L: t-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
* e8 O: u- }2 w+ p" Z8 C0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.2285 z9 n$ S5 f9 j
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239. H8 D; U. h/ G8 y6 }5 s. K
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
) ]$ J/ E$ W+ g* O3 {! E2 u4 d3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258' \2 Q* E) }# N/ d5 J& V1 i
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.2668 B  ~' A- f( y7 Z- u) A7 J
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274; r0 W3 y2 S7 Z8 [  x( _
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281- M/ s% o& `, n" b; F7 e
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287. y+ }6 O* ~: H0 N" d! y
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
$ h9 K( I0 ?( S3 M. _3 c9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.2988 f- o! `/ g& c4 T
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.3020 u( h9 _+ g3 k. [7 U( a7 ]
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
# y* }& g5 }6 T6 ^! d/ u12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
! J  D: q* E" Y- t4 i13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3103 i6 G9 g9 }# [2 `% {
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
% m& M: O) N& l! s- m' _0 }% _15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.3113 H) m0 r; v, P- P
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
. w3 P1 n" J" @# I" ?17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
2 n+ n7 n# v6 d; ^& G) y18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
0 y, B) z) s8 a/ K' B& Y19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.3052 B. X- d: ^2 A6 ~$ h6 ?, S& Z
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
4 c1 D5 E5 q6 @- m  H% \7 K21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.2971 E$ ~7 A% n7 l
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
$ ]) P4 y( B5 W* d& [3 X23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
  D# I3 I6 g) g5 Q* {- ^24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279- j3 R$ ~  G4 L  e
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272' O1 a! B5 U) _, @" B

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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