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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


$ @1 N/ [; o1 n賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
$ ^8 a! O+ h- ~. \5 H! P10A23456789
& \. @" ^( a6 g, v, N-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
7 r6 e: D# f3 B-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
# j) B) j/ ~4 g$ c; h" g-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133. ^9 b5 }! D5 g- o) V
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
8 L6 Y  S( W7 R. c5 u+ S0 E6 o-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
, f5 J4 B6 l: G* L3 T-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096! m( h, F% I' {. f% y! P  U0 B) a! u7 f
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085# P0 T- p5 A* W; [. V* {# V
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.0742 c# h) k! K9 K6 V) e  C/ n. z
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.0643 s( s; |. j; V7 }4 b6 M( }
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054* N4 V3 `# d7 e. s+ T+ J
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.0457 s, G. q: c9 M' L
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0368 P9 g3 m% i" l6 B4 N$ W
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
- v; ]+ w3 _4 C: f5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
1 V! B1 o3 [/ u5 V) y0 u  ?3 s( B# F6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
$ ?. G/ `- G: N# s( F/ l7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
+ }1 G! Z0 V; D8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
( ~1 X, h) i# X3 x4 D$ X9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
! V9 ~% F( d% P5 m4 ~, |, a* ^10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.9926 R* z8 L' M- P
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988$ S6 F6 ^7 |1 v( T0 x, E+ Q
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985! \1 r1 u4 k: r0 E
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
7 l% [  }; M4 J: p14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980) p' t5 u4 z4 n/ U1 Q
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
: X8 B  d/ s9 X; Y/ m; n16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979% ~: _' ?' _! q' E8 S- m7 C1 b) w
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.9798 s3 s6 B  y5 s0 t  b; X3 R
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
1 m. p# C, l7 l: Y19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981$ S1 u' Y0 J, s' S7 B8 T$ E
20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983* q1 m/ O7 _, u& u; l3 g
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986: F5 P* x/ a; q( }5 b
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
3 d2 t* z* K7 k) [0 K23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993* r* m" c# ]$ g# z, @1 y
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.9975 q3 M! T  P6 {8 r0 \
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
/ y8 R# m' A% P/ j$ w1 k: Y

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

- y+ V) K% P: ^- G
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類! ?5 M& E9 T& r6 V6 F
10A23456789
6 ~$ ?5 y8 ~7 Q0 ~-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
" N8 Y5 V% c9 _3 v  |-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
. J$ D6 u* n1 |( _4 S3 o4 O" i  }-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.0695 X6 N$ L& l# S
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056* j$ _+ Y( ?) L  r
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044( |, C7 b' R) I5 E+ F* G5 u+ {
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.0329 B' Q( h  \% e9 N
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
' G* W4 g4 t7 p# y: X-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
& e; y9 V: P2 f2 \  e00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000) h# y+ ^& T) E# _: P3 {
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010/ N  F. p6 m6 \5 L* r4 g
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
0 n6 Z$ g# d1 A3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
2 K- U' x8 d- v! n2 \4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
; x1 i6 R6 R2 l3 F8 R2 }; t2 e5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
3 O9 q6 S! m) D9 X/ h4 O6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.0517 B* n7 F- E0 T, I- z  \' g
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0574 c. _( Z9 N* o3 ~
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063$ y% V" @7 I' m
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
" }" d/ _$ D4 h* H8 P+ H10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
9 l$ q+ R1 p6 ~0 U8 l* A. Z. Q3 R11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.0763 g. ^- u7 d3 Y1 P' f; t
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
( e5 H/ @( z! z5 i13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082% a6 U# v9 H5 B" B* i" r3 Q
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
6 i# h2 k/ _" g7 O15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.0853 P. K, U2 J5 k# g$ ~
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085+ j' ]2 a9 Q' j, R& Y! T0 ^
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
- M: C  R) ^1 }0 J18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085$ k0 h4 C+ t* J: U' W
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
; O+ W7 Y( N0 ?( u7 x/ n20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
) T" A: {' L0 H( m: o) r/ \5 q21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.0786 J7 T* F+ D& R9 q6 o/ ?
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
; {" N" n6 M0 @/ v23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071, R) {' [7 {8 }3 K! [. h
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
6 G1 _+ y) l* y7 |0 \25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062% ~7 W$ Z9 v4 \" ]: U7 q& i

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


9 \1 w) _: G' Y押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類& ]' X# o6 I" b# M
10A23456789
$ g- ~& e& R6 {( Y- Q' S& Z, ^-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
: M0 J! n6 |8 R7 B$ a-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.1371 U* Y/ O3 s* Y: o  r
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152' ]- K/ }1 k+ t
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
# k) S) a) j) L' ?7 r-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
7 Q  K" W, x1 ?% A% P6 Q! ^-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
  v+ V) H! i& f3 k/ L: h" K-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
( U4 D% B2 T5 p# |8 g' Z, W$ w$ d-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217- i7 Z9 J7 |) L# U7 q! T/ Y
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228! M* c& Q% `" G' j* T0 d- |9 }
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
" t8 i* e% w2 ~1 [3 C2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
1 l3 @6 a; [' g2 x' A; e5 k3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2588 c0 e8 y* p$ d7 O7 Z( k* S
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266
$ i' `% g- ]" ~! P/ r5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274+ p! v* a2 T. E! j+ ?
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
! a9 \6 e5 M$ f* R, P. i  I6 R; t/ f7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.2876 T/ \- H3 o& `* @
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.2934 V( o1 F$ y5 z9 @* ]8 K
9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
9 e# w  h6 w/ p- B10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
" v, H/ N) v! m4 z11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
+ {( b6 W& ^0 ^12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.3084 u7 |1 z' A2 }. `, m
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
9 g# I3 ?# Y2 x5 ~6 @8 X14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311- u- \9 K% k; b) P3 G
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
# j& H% Y9 @1 ]& N7 L2 I: G16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
; U' {. L/ J& g17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.3104 _2 T% G8 z# U) h! Y. W$ ]3 L
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308) A, W1 _0 q' V& i) ~1 T; E- e
19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.3057 L+ P1 F2 Q# n8 J  c8 [
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301- h6 I; R& \6 [7 ^. M# M# J0 i8 ?
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
% ~" w) R4 U7 R, P$ P, R22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
8 e4 b8 L" c% b6 |23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
0 H9 x& j# _) k: p1 p24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
, G3 ?! U) ]" u# H7 K25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
! F9 Q; P% X! c; J7 e+ I) j& u

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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