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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?
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+ m7 \' k; ?" D, T会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。3 L) D7 i' @, C, P1 P
3 z' C+ R7 z; t- G/ v. d2 O" G0 L/ X其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!) |+ ~( O. v, Q g1 c+ I% T" Z1 m
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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2 }% s% T V4 }$ u: K请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。) C6 p9 D7 k5 p/ c5 ?3 [; i, C# J
) a: O% a5 P Z答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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! Q5 N4 g, E# }" S* h" V0 ^例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。3 d5 y) t0 c* B' t p7 T8 A0 o
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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) H6 U1 f- l, e' P/ G0 u/ g' `我们先来看一个0和的游戏。
7 D6 o/ v3 |$ } h; T, t+ B0 s o% R2 ?( U$ V& v& t! J
玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!' W) F2 E! |# N, V
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。4 X. F ]! D; K3 r6 ], M/ W
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
8 r) a7 v! W& j' b8 E) L5 R, p% T3 k2 h8 f: q" v" {
接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?( w ` f9 w( K* E/ w
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。" u0 Z! ~# o, m) j6 i" c. J
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。+ i% i) z, M9 f8 j
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。- O5 Y+ Z9 ^& A! q0 h
0 [# a: K/ _7 G# k) X: N下注比例 本金结果
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0.1% 1.001902
7 S4 q4 u+ W C' j% H9 L* k( D ~% X8 |2 O
0.2% 1.003606
6 t+ C/ E$ t. h/ d1 V! l- w0 ?4 Q# h; S0 R: ?1 N3 S$ b8 T
0.3% 1.005113
$ j/ Y ^/ S# q$ I4 z
; @+ c6 j0 f: T h1 n( \0.4% 1.006421" u) e) x5 |7 | G- b0 z2 @
( s+ x) F+ X4 b* T
0.5% 1.007528
/ F& @. y( Y& Q* h: ^! E- @$ x0 P- g2 g0 P3 T
0.6% 1.008435
2 L W. N* W {- k }
0 O( `6 P1 |5 X$ p0.7% 1.009142: f- n3 w2 P5 w4 d/ U( J
# T# P* M$ q) X) t% c% M2 ]! r0.8% 1.009646; u0 U, @/ ]5 `' o3 X6 L
" [/ U/ E, S4 M& V& k0.9% 1.009949
& \ q0 h- [2 m, \6 h, L2 [
8 |9 p& I6 D/ V2 |0 `4 w2 Y. b) {1.0% 1.01005, `& P+ U; a7 a) @* m+ @% ~1 C
' g: e+ Y; @( v8 M) n1.1% 1.009949
) M g' N# ], k y& d2 s! j' F) d' j/ Y
1.2% 1.0096465 n7 Z- e" B+ ]* l0 e) v* ~
8 c# Z% M8 s6 l4 N: L6 L1.3% 1.009142
. q) J" I( w, z
7 A4 G! x/ e8 q( d1.4% 1.008435) }% s) L: [' K
7 n0 F R3 S% E4 J G6 _% R6 f1.5% 1.007528
8 Z) U( ?# \6 C' K9 d7 ~
0 Z; J' v/ J9 ?1.6% 1.00642# s1 P# k/ b* U' r( x2 Q( r2 f
% I5 f7 i+ }$ C% P ?9 Z1.7% 1.0051127 v3 E1 i$ [: a( b0 }
0 q+ u5 I, |# D8 T- V
1.8% 1.003605
" t6 I% f# Z( S% i! { P' k
. [* J' h7 [3 A( a* m5 L8 z1.9% 1.0019
0 v r8 z) I: o9 Y5 Y
. y% a3 K) P" A8 K) j5 r/ L2.0% 0.999997
+ a0 J+ E: I; M2 J5 @ y c7 t: o# T7 n. @) p
2.1% 0.997899
% k! B3 o4 O8 `* }* v6 h- N' G. |% b/ d3 \
2.2% 0.995605" L$ U/ m9 m* p" m
8 Y2 y# C$ c) E) |* o$ j
2.3% 0.9931180 H# o* _8 M4 y
) q9 ?; e" D `* T& N- ]3 e2.4% 0.9904394 e. ]; S9 B. P5 |
; K9 Z" e' B7 N6 h6 k2.5% 0.987569
0 Z5 K6 @, }. z* }5 Y" H D. z& I3 ^, P3 u& b
2.6% 0.98451
% N! X- c2 S. ], _/ W, [$ ^5 M
8 s& F0 b5 }! {* m2.7% 0.981264# ]2 |* o$ ?$ \( y) ?* i
% f& y- v z4 K6 W
2.8% 0.977833
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( b) E5 _& r, l8 ?7 ]5 L, b2.9% 0.974219) x/ }$ Y+ W4 R! }6 h. M3 m
- v2 c. x- p+ B5 f% |0 F7 I3.0% 0.9704242 {$ g1 Z2 J# [- v/ h- b8 M
; }3 ^2 V9 R# o8 M6 N" P从上表可以得到一些结论:
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利* \$ D5 U3 Z0 ?9 E* \# S; ]
3 ^$ E: _8 h- |( I) G5 j" O2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!# ?, f2 Q o' W0 ]- U
: E. |" B! J& n! x3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈
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3 l$ c. p( w) t3 [; K5 `& Z9 [3 y凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。3 P* N v f# M) s& Q c$ G
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。7 k& d' g8 G3 x5 C
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