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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
# a8 P1 v5 Q" e' v3 m# c+ j4 }- f$ M, U% }" x
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率. S( d$ Z5 _1 f% z* W8 i: F
: |# A' l# A. T2 t以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% . Q! Z1 H1 R; E3 c
1 \, a% m; M" W. x+ g很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?& L$ U0 T9 Q) m& g
1 S0 ?4 ^ t0 S答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?, y9 ~" \( h6 F ?! S$ Q* U) b/ u( x
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`) `2 |8 B# \& f& R+ A! O s1 B8 W盈利可能性
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5 Q$ {! m/ e/ C6 t$ V0 g+ c' r对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。2 ]% e) t: j: B. `' C
9 O9 b F' R) w+ w, V1 ^增值
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k7 ~" O2 ^9 I许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。) @) ^, u- }. C% s
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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" c7 x+ t; _9 g: ]' f4 b ba) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润% e# L3 ?! c: n$ i. X# Q7 N4 j5 z
60%的机会你会一无所有
; e- `3 p5 V# ?0 `3 X# T9 J预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
5 `! I- W' _0 I" |1 y由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。6 S( J4 d; k9 E
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。" f" W( w$ V; Z4 X3 {! |" _
3 F! _4 x2 L% `% `8 {基于增值的投注# ?8 ?" D+ D/ L8 L5 o
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
! G3 Q8 s: y+ _% g* ?/ `P=获胜机会
: f. N8 O/ L9 r+ D+ K# MO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
) `3 d% z! A- C" u( _
3 Z% y. I2 X1 o* a+ @! {首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。 K |! j7 ]8 U3 r
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。8 {( g% G3 z8 y. l& Z( @
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)" G- l3 ^; b; z; L
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=03 {& p2 b) F% }3 t! M8 H* N8 Z
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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5 w+ |3 k& J1 `4 H7 y+ M2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)7 J5 U* }2 X- X; F2 y+ x
; t( u! Z' B* I9 B3 Q& H# bA=0.1% }: ?& D( {- J/ z% ?
+ q4 |1 H5 s3 Q& v7 z
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
: b; _, v* M( ^! o+ U. j8 r
. G: F! p0 ^# X8 O+ E. S3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)1 i/ s% ]+ | r) ]
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)' I( O; e8 ]+ s5 j) K4 H3 J! ~
6 O) b/ S$ e v$ z1 IA= -0.2 ; C' q7 m# |7 d. a; ^ G
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好' M' Y7 M: c1 `- q) \6 C1 ^
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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