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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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. _! A3 D9 z, G! K; k西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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$ R+ d1 y: ~0 p5 e( ?9 T以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% - l8 L4 N2 z0 C& Z

+ G7 U* a+ o; b0 D; F9 \8 h2 l很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?# N0 p: J1 W: W+ B

0 M5 h7 E  p' g) v8 a答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)" _; Z4 }0 _* [8 O
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- F9 w6 K8 ?$ {2 D% L8 t* I以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?6 w" R% H  G- R5 W3 K* l) l: V
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。" y' r( f9 p) z9 R8 f

9 S" @1 l7 ]8 c" {) f增值( r( L9 q" {% |" W

7 h& x1 S- G0 S% ?* B0 m许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。% O! {+ Z8 I1 A6 \
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?5 ]  F  A% v$ z% q$ T, |, g4 f

2 V% q. S9 ?1 U0 W1 S/ Y. Ba) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么3 M4 \% F1 R5 A1 A. ^
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润7 \4 l1 V! [, f: c
60%的机会你会一无所有
: f6 T) e4 j; L5 u$ g0 |9 k, U& y预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 4 l  h+ {8 ^  ^& l
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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) T7 x+ W6 B# |7 _基于增值的投注+ n8 I* m: U; }8 _
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
9 E8 O, b+ f6 r% vP=获胜机会$ V- b2 r& r+ _% p4 z& E& n7 s
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)1 _6 x! U4 b, `3 `  M

0 a7 @) H" o& D, [# B4 q首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。& ?; N% C" x% |1 m' o$ p

6 ]  a" A; Z1 A2 v" M+ P好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。; N) x# m( o! F: C
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)3 O' [1 x( J3 x1 T

7 i6 ?: Z7 }% I% s5 J- s! y+ m: gA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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- ~8 U6 T- ~- l- g5 K4 E9 l+ zA=0
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/ s$ r: Q3 w1 G' o结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢0 {& Z1 Y" C7 g- ~1 y

) U; B; L! A# O4 `. b7 Z2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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4 @# x1 V# f6 o0 ]' P/ mA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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, z9 T" w# G! p" Y) ?0 f" K. |$ iA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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( {. K( `/ k; V3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)  t* K0 D7 e! j- }4 B
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A= -0.2
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/ `# ]- Q9 y  m' l8 S结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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/ r8 ]4 W& B2 H+ P: k$ v% S$ X6 g第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
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