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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。. c v* C8 ^: q" Y' Z, _4 j
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4 H3 H8 Y5 b! v1 |* \+ O西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率$ h3 [$ U; C# Z0 S2 [5 ?
# z- N2 i5 T. i- k2 Z# `- R以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:5 e0 \3 M! E# y% o$ ]8 |
4 f% y% \1 b7 H* M) D- m
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% l; T; Y( v% Z
( ~+ N' X6 E3 g$ E' t) ?# u
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)1 W) H8 \1 \8 X" s9 q$ |6 X
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9 d+ [5 P: p! y' Q以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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+ L8 k$ t, l) j
盈利可能性
, X; Y7 h+ _3 _( y7 ~, p0 e# h$ A ]- p3 [: b2 _5 ~1 p# r
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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& N/ z- Y- e/ x' ~许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?' ^: z* \' m" V3 V. |% v j
8 s# S" r/ O2 W; V& G' ^# p" ~a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ]6 {6 o, \; c! c7 ]" q
1 u! x4 c. P$ ?. D8 P8 {
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
4 t5 i- q/ }/ |60%的机会你会一无所有
9 ~$ T) z- V9 }. m( {预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
/ ~/ O* S8 D+ d7 Q7 h由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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" _9 x9 p( a- \$ u+ U基于增值的投注
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- `0 [' a) s4 s% E3 i; R/ K7 d2 g凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
. }" N% n- ^* v: b) C# F1 H, p* e4 ]/ w- k6 F( I
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金. V; C5 l6 I: L) p6 o; B9 w: Z
P=获胜机会: H1 L+ R) P w0 h& l0 V6 w
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。* l4 A% i6 ^0 N# i: d# T
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。8 b' b0 @" f& }$ Q- Z. o) ~" R" {
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5), r/ O- ]0 h: i
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)# [$ l9 \! @; U* s# c3 w
# E, D. k0 l% z7 Z* g+ _4 _( ^& vA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢) n. q1 q% m" o# k0 [
( v4 o) ^5 S3 H0 e% p2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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, i# M: x k: z# jA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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1 w* H# F( x1 vA=0.1
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8 d. {1 ~+ u- D0 u+ o3 ^/ z. ?" X结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去5 J6 E' I4 {1 r5 x
4 ^+ M3 k) ^: ~
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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1 Y0 o1 {9 s2 |6 {% tA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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, v3 j. E' Q7 W* k: i! _A= -0.2 ( l/ {' V( ~/ B( `6 Q
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好' ^, a8 \7 N! D' H" F
+ R2 n; Q( b* s7 \. r8 b
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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