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[lastpost] => 2774981 比特币跌破 STH 成本基础 – 为什么这可能是买入信号？（转） 1762622696 小作文
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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# I4 v& x# s/ D2 ?- \( R但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。) M- f3 y1 r" i# _: \% l
$ c0 j6 e4 k( @Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
@+ i/ x8 Z3 }" @% x( u0 E) l+ F$ _' r1 w( T- B( ?0 ?) {
开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
) U( H* L" G! _/ {7 e# o) q2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。1 J/ s& d1 V: S' Q$ M- I! L
4 [4 B* X6 j. f; s来源：Alphractal
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7 ]; d" l! q6 O& z! C15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。
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+ u0 c: a2 h9 C% Y8 L& C尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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b! Y8 L4 [2 C4 l. C事情变得有趣了
- S6 J; q1 @ N3 zBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。! R; q# E6 ?1 ^. M
. B8 N: U' e4 h2 d% ^; o5 c/ Q6 M来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
5 f. H) T, Y7 M" ]% w# i+ z9 L& s
BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。/ J8 J7 Z: O* @- U! X! m
) C+ l. `3 T) ]( D; R" V* g e正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。. H- Z% `$ f* e. L, B! p3 R; j. w
4 o B1 k! R/ E+ p随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。# u( K; \& X4 t8 Y8 ?0 b& I
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力/ n8 a& _5 I/ m h
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。6 G. P$ r$ u6 j* h. e4 m e7 p
8 p& j/ U+ A. t+ ^3 {) W( E' h来源：TradingView/ q1 n1 a0 m1 O ?) V
9 n2 N$ E, g/ |; I$ Q日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。) b) h6 W* b* R
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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) y) ?4 s6 i: ? Y突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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