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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。. y- H# O# }1 Y/ t2 D
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国. Y+ C: \: t$ A4 t2 D' S. ^
9 g* F0 }$ @+ E, A7 V; v& x1 h市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。& F) {8 t/ a; v
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与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而
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; R1 S& \+ p; v9 S- s“短期看空”比特币。
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& {! f0 h( k" H* [! c0 ]$ ^ “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
' Y. }, ]: F& U* r- L* H* B, ^
- B! X, \$ i: U& k实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”
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报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。
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根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，5 g& j& s2 f; F" n) |
( w6 W9 ]! {5 b- e而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。& k) `- d9 ~6 O" _$ R
4 D3 x9 ]! @6 o" ] t( M( d- u BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的7 v) c1 w3 \2 z7 S: B
! r2 R+ v- ~3 ]+ R9 Q1 E利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”
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“尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，
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将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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