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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。5 V7 ] M# X$ s6 v
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国
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市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。8 j4 L. M' l$ \9 y: U
+ y: u; j" K+ l# _3 T# C5 `' U 与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而5 _5 D' E N$ _5 N2 {. C0 Y
, X0 V; D& I# O9 v3 g3 D“短期看空”比特币。/ x0 P. ^& |% |# m' }, f
2 ~6 q* H5 M: B7 |- V# ?$ F+ c “在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
8 b6 J. w+ }! `: r* y$ q& @+ @2 m# v$ l- `7 H6 _ v
实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”2 ~* |' h& P9 F" [. h# [
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报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。
5 S2 `1 y' h9 k- \; o Q4 A2 @ I+ q; W# A5 X- f4 W2 C
3 i( x5 @7 w" x* d% Q- Y$ P$ y$ z. ?" Q
0 t/ B3 {& ~& q$ w6 A3 e- P 根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，
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而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。
3 n( a: A: Z) V
- a i2 s" Z, m BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的0 z9 v4 p2 e" }! n5 a! L
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”, @& [* R+ r2 Y
) f d* U3 g5 [/ l2 z “尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，
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9 ~$ F; ^, G* t0 v, l1 L将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”
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