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[lastpost] => 2809641 Aptos股价再次瞄准1美元：Decibel评级上调能否维持APT的涨势？（转） 1772249884 舞出精彩
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。* N% k: w0 [: u
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
( X7 p' k1 {# ?( w, K Q" s& j5 m L美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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. t# _8 z2 m, E% L+ _) z融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。! u- l# q7 B$ B. f6 W2 h
/ t7 m3 W8 k; x9 E# J+ B1 i然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更% c, E( B" @/ Z% s9 B! k0 {
4 Y j+ _. ^$ y* T是表示：" B8 h0 A$ T4 \$ b
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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# j( H" D8 Z5 |/ J历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币2 `/ h( a3 A! d4 u* f/ W% a* q
% F' I; _1 I. e6 ^/ ?0 ~特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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$ P( @ S* l% d标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：$ i% \' S d4 Y0 T5 y
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。5 l) W8 ^4 j# R& T, P$ y
4 |8 b; g# n* E3 C3 w周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。+ N; h$ d) G7 F: @: l) D
$ s' R9 D8 C) N4 `" P周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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6 @' y, J# o/ ^) L; n- t收益率冲高回落。+ o9 y- j+ n4 m, j0 v) Q( e
$ {/ W. S" V3 {) F; N4 A; V! [周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。6 F; R- N ~. u; ]
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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U, p) {" q! I$ _Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，% V: h+ v% ?) a& n( H% N1 t
+ Y. k. \, @# j& |, D ^/ u& v是的，这正是我们所看到的。"4 o7 M% e2 ]! o
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去7 n" M M# ~; I" {% g
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。- d( ~/ y) i% [; `' T8 o6 k1 X
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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