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[lastpost] => 2771854 如果Base有空投，你要怎么撸？（转） 1759853343 caoch
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。# ^6 \. p0 Y( G
* e7 z0 h8 v+ O# `6 m瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
5 H+ M. j# A+ {* S* X/ h& D
: k5 _1 \" Y' a5 H" h; C' }0 w% H衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
. c" m6 H# ~9 |# R% `0 \美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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7 F: N2 Y% @8 E. F" y7 k6 f9 p2 g融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。# O9 g. u; t0 N$ A8 F4 p3 W1 N, N' R n
& w+ y* C- j. E6 ^3 t过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益; f1 K# V# S c+ r6 j0 @
2 U4 v* H( N: T2 [
率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。* N+ o8 x: S0 [3 b4 x9 u! g
+ ]$ K$ Q. B( i1 f" M然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国+ k/ q. R% D" q D7 h' p
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更8 K% c4 n' \+ R9 n
, x5 d9 L+ V3 e' U5 Y% Q* I是表示：3 |5 \/ D; C; Y5 L" X9 A" |
: |0 Z- `& \+ r这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史+ ~, t* t1 a4 e: f; I
$ Q" D r7 w% p+ A6 {' T标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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5 o) v: T G7 r/ u( W* d4 T周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
: u5 ~( k% y9 [) A/ o( w( j; @7 P
7 I; n/ B8 y! A! x0 `# @ O( _2 X周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
* u& ?$ C) G6 ?! h5 Z0 G
* W. u1 [% w @$ D9 G m: J8 X收益率冲高回落。
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?3 ~9 e) m! O+ z- T周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。! n* C9 B( O* x
2 p5 q/ f+ o9 E1 b周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。; n# m6 u g) w' z7 v
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. K5 Y$ T3 z; |" d) R7 I+ m& {Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
! W6 ?" c: C. C2 I' T3 W+ L8 L K/ [
是的，这正是我们所看到的。"# A# [# h2 G6 ?$ [$ d
+ c/ K) ~* Y$ q/ M0 {
根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去- K# y& V! E1 q/ x# D2 ^
; m" J1 ]0 U: \4 m7 Y年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。7 h3 v* i3 Z/ e& |
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! }8 ?5 q4 x% i) d
/ q* o$ A7 `+ V( fRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"5 d% ]1 g2 r$ {
2 V' l) b8 x4 e) @2 W7 Q7 K7 ?/ a* k- i- {. _" q, h, U
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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