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[虚拟币交流]
比特币的未来是否有被操纵的风险?你需要知道的转变(转)
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自疫情扰乱传统资产以来,比特币巨头一直在积极积累比特币。
, ^' c3 A* _( F3 R5 T1 \$ Y1 C这是否预示着大规模牛市的前兆?
3 i9 b5 P/ d8 M/ `4 c比特币[BTC]突破10万美元,再次证明加密货币市场在第一季度的牛市中蓬勃发展。但这一次,这个六位数的里程碑背后是十年的变化。
# V4 _: g* M0 K* }% k$ @ q9 r, D3 S I" }& f7 _5 y) ~# K
就在10年前,BTC的年初价格为314美元。快进到2025年,增长了29639% ;
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9 @9 F: C: Q3 ~1 Z3 M* I- R# G! S但这不仅仅是数字。AMBCrypto揭示了这一激增背后的隐藏因素——一个将重塑市场的因素。但这是好事还是坏事?
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做好准备,一场重大冲击即将到来;: [7 F; V3 v! ?9 Y0 q0 \1 h
尽管比特币鲸鱼只占网络的1.25%,但它们一直是帮助比特币打破主要心理目标的关键。4 c. u7 \6 I* K
: n( F- y: Z N# Y0 h1 v7 _/ s这一转变在2020-21年周期真正得到了体现,当时疫情后的繁荣推动投资者远离传统市场。* L9 @* C* [" A5 T1 j1 u
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作为回应,BTC在2021年首次突破2万美元,持有超过1万BTC的地址达到15万。- G6 C7 v9 z2 L( B9 F
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这就是为什么当市场变得艰难时,散户投资者会转向这些HODLers寻求指导。; i# |( G2 v' _# R( b7 Q: B- ]7 @
! o4 D% D/ D! \3 j" \, w即使是10万美元的突破(截至本文撰写时)也发生在大玩家身上舀起来更多BTC,引发大规模零售资本的涌入.; J9 |! ? s* [% X
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但现在,围绕“中心化”的争论在比特币网络上愈演愈烈。一些人认为,随着更多的比特币集中在更少的人手中,市场可能会更容易受到突然波动的影响。
$ r7 k ~. y( M5 h/ f5 }: y7 J% O- Q6 i7 x
但情况是这样的:鲸鱼移动的比特币数量已经下降到2016年以来从未见过的水平。换句话说,BTC流入交易所的速度在过去十年中大幅放缓。
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" L" W. n# J6 m8 a为什么这很重要?这挑战了比特币巨头正在操纵市场的观点。9 f0 j7 \+ R. x9 I/ |* ^% \
, I! s d/ M6 a) k8 I/ f事实上,随着鲸鱼积累更多的比特币,交易量放缓,我们可能处于比特币有史以来最大的供应冲击的边缘。
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比特币鲸鱼正在为2025年做准备+ I2 J" n+ G) j. |7 P
目前,加密货币市场正处于高度兴奋阶段,BTC在两周后收回了10.2万美元。市场内外的多种因素共同推动了这一激增。
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然而,这一次的情况与上一个周期有所不同,当时由于经济担忧和美联储的谨慎立场,比特币在10.8万美元处挣扎 ;; Y5 L1 R. B, ~7 I' d1 o# _. W' q4 A5 _
( x5 c- @" |5 J7 @" V2 ]5 G+ K随着特朗普就职典礼的临近,第一季度看涨趋势的历史,以及大量资本从这两个方面涌入机构对于散户投资者来说,潜在的反弹可能会更高。
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更重要的是,比特币鲸鱼对BTC作为一种价值储存表现出更强的信心。这一转变表明,价格剧烈波动的时代可能已经过去;
# i0 X7 B( X$ \
+ v& o6 E9 `7 i- L# @; v% i因此,随着比特币的分布变得更加稳定,其波动性正在稳步下降,为未来更大的周期奠定了基础。
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随着这一转变,BTC已准备好度过不可避免的2025年市场风暴事实上,它甚至可能将BTC定位为更安全的赌注,在未来一年可能会超过风险较高的资产。
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