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[lastpost] => 2773157 「10.11大清洗」前3小时,CZ直播说了些啥?(转) 1760288956 caoch
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
! i% J" I7 O9 ^% f自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。& s6 y3 [2 T- x+ u, ]
' H5 R5 h0 u9 \7 B+ T- G2 e2 |自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。* D2 [- k, A: X( U9 U" n
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。3 K! q' G3 q! a& i; j/ X7 t
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2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
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那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
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1 K* ^3 I. ^; b+ z6 G观察ETF和鲸鱼活动* e" e0 g+ x3 F
分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
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上周降至1300 BTC。
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。$ {% I. u& `' J5 W0 B0 y5 [9 [
; X+ \5 I* e" i3 {) a" T鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
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1 A p% R, H+ }& f, F& ^! G' }鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
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Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。5 f# b0 W6 _+ f7 |5 n& B
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尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
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# D% d4 o- r s5 S# u, O比特币会突破其区间吗?
' T% {$ O4 c$ [% M. H随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
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根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
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: z4 }- D3 D5 Y: a* t3 m' o因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。! M# B+ a0 j9 f4 K7 |
& u: l* V: ?4 v* O7 A位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。# T7 t. ~' O' n7 U1 j
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。" I1 o5 o& [) a6 h5 \
B+ Z/ P1 B# X a根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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