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[虚拟币交流]
美股上涨，长端利率上升打击BTC流动性资产，今年牛市难以实现（转）
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美股和比特币的逻辑不同:美股上涨主要是由Gamma对冲和CTA推动，不太受联储降息与否的影响。一旦不确定性被解决，美股往往会直线拉升。( K9 H' c* g! s% Z3 J
0 Y/ K7 U) C7 _0 b降息对比特币流动性资产受影响更大，但不仅限于此。降息影响的是短期利率，而长端利率对风险资产影响更大。例如，一次0.25个百分点的升息，
: T' P6 ]6 Q/ K# y+ [, f8 a& g! ^$ T. B8 G" v- Z& ]' Y
若10年期利率上升25个基点，其影响力远大于单次升息。七大公司股票不依靠流动性支撑，而是由引力支撑。例如，英伟达的PE长期保持稳定，主! o$ R8 p5 y1 |. j, X+ u8 p! o5 u( U
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要依靠每股收益（EPS）和AI业务的增长推动。9 H- a* t$ ]: ?3 O/ S5 T
市场上承担风险的资产分为活期资产和长期风险资产。活期资金投向银行存款、短期债券等，长期资金投向比特币、股票、长期国债等。当10年期' M5 `# r" d9 y7 z Q0 E/ _
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国债收益率高于股票收益率时，投资者更倾向于购买国债而非股票。如果这种情况发生，表明市场处于晚期阶段，风险资产特别是比特币将受重创。
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长端利率上升对所有风险资产都有较大影响，尤其是比特币等流动性风险资产。' C. N. q( D }& K5 ` B9 v+ `
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美国从去年开始大规模发债，但经济依然强劲，利率在5.25-5.5%。通常情况下，升息会导致经济衰退，但美国经济的增长本质已改变。经济增长依赖+ m- T% b- B3 r* Z& H6 Z
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于私营部门和ZF债务的加权平均。8 H7 R# _3 w4 p" k& m" q! j. s* B
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& G! g. ]3 @ E0 A美国ZF通过持续发债来支撑经济，但这也导致市场供需矛盾加剧。2023年美国债券市场的DV01 约为7亿美元，今年预计将增加到10亿美元。财政部
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9 s4 x3 I, c/ n被迫发行长期债券，而市场上长期债券的买方主要是高盛那些对冲基金，这些基金通过短期低利率资金购买长期高利率债券来赚取利差。然而，当前长- a/ }7 I( {( L' N: f
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短期利率倒挂，缺乏买家，导致长期债券需求不足。预计10年期长端利率接近5%，这对比特币和黄金等无收益的流动性资产是巨大打击。比特币目前/ {" N. Z2 ^6 I, {0 D0 [
|3 \) Y" Z$ e依靠套利维持，但在流动性减少的情况下，山寨币可能归零。总体来看，流动性资产难以进入牛市，只有当长端利率下降，市场才可能迎来转机，但今
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6 g2 p1 r1 M: i9 F; L年难以看到这种改变。+ Q# E, G8 U# Q9 T' G7 r$ E
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