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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
4 W; d9 r1 d: `. l5 d
* f& ~$ x) |6 ?( n6 { 初盘高水,豪门要防冷
5 }- T) d' T, m' K. D7 h3 b$ _" z
2 D+ j6 s( n2 J7 q1 v1 d9 P8 Q
* E/ X& ?) o X6 j. @( { 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:" z& q$ K; F2 }7 W- h
英超主队0 S4 n4 t4 ^. T+ r
胜:11场 79%
$ _& {) {6 s/ l 平:2场 14%) z1 V' O/ c+ f5 l
负:1场 7%
. a' e. S, @6 J7 L6 x! y : e; u! a- P( ]& P( Z3 f
通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。5 p5 f1 z: {0 ^+ W" H( y' _
0 Z) y# Q1 Q4 u( q4 _ 一、初盘阶段. z" ]8 A* Z, \& @) M+ z Z) Z
% G- |( N' \) y 具体到水位如下:
. y# o3 o! g2 i, F 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
. T$ n. d/ Q3 Z$ k 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
/ k, |5 b" [* s% v! S ]& o 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平- Y/ f7 }% Q w0 @6 i4 C
" D( J% E. U, X8 Z 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是: D$ M$ ^+ {* I& O7 }1 O
) [% F( [2 S& w* @
维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00: `7 z: T0 f* D; Q0 O4 j( s
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02& V: ]0 z: F# V
热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
3 o' b; V* Z- m e* m . l' W3 l2 K6 w1 y# S
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
9 N0 Y) j8 y$ q; c# ~ 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。9 H# K/ ]$ r& ?+ j. |8 j
( ?# ^& G, T! e. H1 v1 E* a 二、临场阶段
, D5 H) p1 l& U- m- @ , u; c0 v/ D2 n) I c2 q0 N
具体到盘口如下:
! G- r' r* p/ q# j. v6 h F 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜" x! g" {7 T" G% K$ r( U
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
7 N, H5 y# S) M8 S5 m 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
8 U; M Z. P1 v' M4 g 9 {2 s# r, k6 [' @& g5 K7 l
热刺VS伯恩利
0 m- U( `, z/ t7 l3 y6 [, Q 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
; i d; y9 ?. B L1 t' t; M 终盘:0.77球半1.09! M9 l5 |7 I, ?. t
" d4 E, ?- S: ~. @+ V. T9 K 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
- b l/ s3 B6 i/ c3 |, r9 M; n ) |% H" R* k( C( ^1 n
三、球队表现0 D' J4 I% V" L
0 o/ k6 }2 ?3 C/ N4 D+ S3 S8 B
在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
" a3 M- Y" C- [+ E6 R
* [; k! N" X+ r: M$ R2 [$ C 四、投注要点5 D7 u" {( W6 q
, w" g7 v% N& V: ^1 G& L: ~ 要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
, R$ ~ [# R+ _# r 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
" U, h. a& {* K' n! w# q 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能( e6 k! w e& o# H! G
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31: C+ y8 f) b# R1 Z" [# Q
要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
5 j: w3 G9 t% F3 u8 G+ j 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任3 R1 [; H3 V1 g$ ] p) d' Y
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视3 \( i$ K Z/ i* ~: l$ c: Q
% u( V0 c" z+ r* v 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
6 H4 K Q [2 v7 _8 v/ ?: d 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方' s8 O3 }# I0 }5 @( t: c; F
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。9 {3 u8 g( E) B- A
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