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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘* _7 m$ V3 c3 \- N# b9 R! t# l
q9 F/ a3 d7 v0 e8 U! ~, X
平手中水,主队有利 i' ]$ W5 z4 n) H8 t. c
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
" A! Q/ }1 f8 k( u! ? 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
1 F8 Y% ]2 G- G% `* x, W# _+ [ 英超主队
0 ^1 v" n5 e" J" z8 B2 r5 N* J 胜:13场 48% W( w; f6 X$ I) r& b; z6 w
平:5场 17%4 ~$ H5 r% s1 q, `8 {
负:9场 35%
4 K5 @1 e$ X, ~' F5 Q) ~ 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
) I3 N) e; M' I! }
0 p. r2 l9 ?- J 一、初盘阶段
& `2 A# D7 O4 b& E 具体到水位如下:+ {+ W& A, z x+ k
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
- P1 F/ G# K+ V* P 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负. b. a" s: H {/ R, M1 x& g
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负4 U) }8 B6 B1 [+ n7 \* |! R# @
2 R9 V" j& q* }7 a! t- a3 m0 n& ^5 x
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。# }. \- Z9 F; T8 i2 J# {1 G3 @
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。" J% `& n% M6 Q8 p: {0 X
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
. i m# c# m: G$ }1 b
. z0 D& x3 v$ P0 T6 L& O$ h4 T 二、临场阶段' a2 {3 M: c( P) F9 l+ f) c
( ~! S! F3 p0 F" N9 a* g
具体到变盘和水位如下:
4 Y* e; N( B, ^6 B) | 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负7 i8 w% ~5 k% Y
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负 ]- b/ a U/ u4 B
+ c7 B% S1 M4 U. r 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
7 O+ j( b0 P1 X1 _, A 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
$ y2 j2 @ t& M+ ~. M& {/ _3 y- g. M
* x2 y* }6 p _& S 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿/ q0 Z3 L) W& G; d0 f
初盘:0.82平手1.042 z) s& @, q( y5 P8 B# L& J
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
8 J4 I; u5 d/ T
, s9 K, G& P2 o$ W, t) ] 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
( U- g# S9 r, ]0 N 初盘:0.76平手1.10 D6 j) n4 k) ?4 J$ ~) R, ^
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
; \- ?( p6 @5 x1 o6 C
% R) a! X5 L! f5 } 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
6 u9 z/ I, ~2 w 初盘:0.82平手1.04
6 `& l" t* Z. X' `- [/ m3 e/ v 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.981 e6 \ X$ x" u+ m7 y1 w
& z/ f! L }0 X; ~, \* G
伯恩利2-1西汉姆 J6 T) ~/ H/ e. Z1 x8 }' Q
初盘:0.88平手0.98
- |7 w0 a+ v$ N/ N5 m4 ~) e 终盘:1.12平/半0.743 X9 q: U) P$ H# y
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。) n& v$ [* k5 h. R0 s
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。( \/ o3 B+ H8 |) ~% D; i
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。# b( |; V' v! o- y0 o
5 ~! e# _2 `, V 三、球队表现( q2 s. A9 h+ H) K: Q. e+ h9 [7 X+ T
7 j" l+ ]* }$ D" x4 Q 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。! K2 u4 U/ g+ a4 l
+ B# P' d8 f4 }* J9 c" q 四、投注要点
/ \' ]$ s/ z8 ]8 U% f7 s6 q: ^2 N/ X 要点1:平手中水、主多不败
: r6 Y6 o2 `4 ^* O Q- _6 @ 要点2:平手降盘、走两头: q' S% H1 O! W- c
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
9 {1 N* I/ \: W. x% N, ~( U4 v# T 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
) T5 g, g6 W0 q4 P! ? 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任8 g# _0 N5 ?2 d) g3 u! f
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大9 t) W4 [- `! z9 v1 M: X
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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