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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘/ Q- j: c+ L% X+ U
     * W3 N8 ~5 P4 o' q3 s
     平手中水,主队有利
7 L5 b' s8 @$ o! u  y; h9 d: n     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。: v& ~- F" _9 [+ V& L1 ?! s7 A8 I/ F
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
/ N4 I& U5 Y# J     英超主队! I6 N/ n7 M/ D$ r
     胜:13场 48%$ H3 f6 t3 o% f6 D' m6 ^
     平:5场 17%# c' `# K2 b9 y/ J% X) n
     负:9场 35%" b6 w0 ^8 D* n" B; r' G- T
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
. S2 d5 O% z. V& M9 j     
' B7 {0 w' c* E# ~) K     一、初盘阶段0 g! R* B, ~+ w% A& p! E
     具体到水位如下:$ n/ _. Q1 c4 ]* ~& N
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负9 @) D9 {0 T. Q
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
, k+ f- f# G9 @& `0 v) o     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
5 u$ L& j5 _- }& _' V7 p; q- c1 P     , {, c8 M1 Z/ M$ b
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。4 t( e1 y3 l9 _
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
+ V; `6 r* A2 w4 M6 v* B: `4 C     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。! s+ ~8 b% y  Q2 _- t- t# n
     7 U& A" x7 a8 Y# S
     二、临场阶段
5 _3 o# J! L/ N! e" t     
4 s( Y) M% L8 Z- C7 z     具体到变盘和水位如下:
7 k+ f: d" m# e8 m" D     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负: z) q: n5 u& S$ k( |# {# [6 @" i
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
, f- |( v& R/ G* l     
5 o0 O' j# W8 z4 S& f     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。8 ]5 P1 S# o$ u- q5 u$ o
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:( `% s0 h+ B# a8 g) M
     
; ^, ?$ B. L) o% ?7 U. B     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿+ ^: @+ G* m& D! ]* S4 v! P. I
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 f$ X. ~' `& ?8 z7 D0 ]! m     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85) B, M  \8 @/ H7 q2 I: |
     
2 B& T/ |: a* a; I# [     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
7 m! T# Q: p4 X5 q/ {( V  V     初盘:0.76平手1.100 P+ Q5 ]" P! Z' V# ~! l) N# A' `
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.919 h/ C$ ~, L- \# ^4 q. Y4 f
     
' q3 S6 p& @( O2 Y     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
8 t5 y! r% J( ]     初盘:0.82平手1.04
* b  Q- q: u, {4 d% N+ l, V     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
8 l0 G5 L# G6 Z$ h/ o- `     
  V* N  _# V4 l8 z$ r8 y     伯恩利2-1西汉姆  o) Y+ P  [+ M1 i
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
0 a! B' R: X: f8 ]" V! }     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
6 d" Q9 s; P, p     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
: U% k2 }2 v/ A* _2 P3 Y5 ~     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
( H" f/ |8 M1 w1 u. @8 p     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。% _; E' d. W9 J. Q
     8 l- i+ R* N( S3 w5 z/ F+ v
     三、球队表现
; Q' w" T' c6 A7 j  d     
) P: a4 ?" W1 i2 L     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
) k% z* J: E7 D* T9 |; j# s     
/ v! p6 |. I6 S- X2 c: g0 m     四、投注要点
; z6 C: i9 {: [' w     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
& |0 V7 a/ X, D. f2 ?/ d     要点2:平手降盘、走两头, q, i  }) K( M+ Y- b# T' @
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
5 V& q- x# c0 W: Q     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大# s( J* k0 G7 N, w) R2 p7 y
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任  B- V8 y, e' K9 F/ t
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大& ?+ l0 L9 |6 I/ b4 R7 A; S9 T
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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