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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘8 |, X0 @! f- i" `$ n* t
     ! d1 ]5 ^, A( l& A
     平手中水,主队有利7 e2 i- [& W9 A% Z! U9 t, L# s
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
8 Y$ f3 u( n' r: M3 ^8 D) }     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:4 G0 C: O% [# K# E
     英超主队+ N1 R0 Z* }3 V2 ~* p8 c" P- `
     胜:13场 48%
" f& b" k( a& E9 o, p3 R     平:5场 17%
( j6 q/ t4 v/ s! q     负:9场 35%5 Z+ o  l$ p/ T& C. W# i! v
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
0 u# f- u" m& O     4 L" C, M* ?! i% {! S6 W" P, P
     一、初盘阶段
/ O1 d. }( a2 t0 }  j4 Y) h3 y     具体到水位如下:
' ^  d4 _6 ]2 K& \     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
1 R$ R6 M6 x+ L- u1 k     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负0 o1 \4 r. y; C+ f/ f7 U3 l' V
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负( A0 a  C  Z" ^) r
     $ i7 |, r8 f1 @1 D0 z  j$ E3 _
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
5 @7 N- K# g. U9 _6 {; |9 y* j     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
; K( \2 y  U1 F& r     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
" J: _% Q& g; R2 I     
% e( ~# E2 _& c( P* K+ q& x7 F     二、临场阶段! C+ t! e' j, D) [9 M
     
; v( v/ @+ a2 n     具体到变盘和水位如下:) b, M0 B. {6 M( g. R7 e* C
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负3 S. F* q* L2 T% B' D  i
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负4 a6 t( A0 [: x9 @" V# J* }
     
& [+ E" ^! t+ O2 f# p     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。% I2 ^$ A' F4 ], p
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:# }& [9 \5 I( w" M( t9 K
     ! J1 o' u9 \; {- Y7 t
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
" J% g7 ~5 q9 [1 i& C2 r     初盘:0.82平手1.04
' c9 u9 ^4 O4 O/ y- v     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.858 P, e) c7 M4 c) Q% u4 k
     - Q& Y: `" e' z) e$ s' Z; C
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆/ @  n8 T! s3 b6 q* ?$ Y, Z8 U
     初盘:0.76平手1.10# |4 j6 k! q6 \) Z
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91. e. T; R& L4 |+ q' G
     
0 J% B$ C: y6 C: i7 K0 q     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技6 q7 B5 l5 x' t# x1 i1 K. s
     初盘:0.82平手1.04/ J4 I' {8 B2 ?- c; Q7 A
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
% x& d$ ~) ^+ J$ [+ E( z6 r* q     
; \' c5 @# H$ i3 J; c1 u     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
, x- e! X, l+ x  E# `  G5 ?4 T     初盘:0.88平手0.98) G4 w! A  t& Q/ G# u
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
( O* g( c- a! r6 \* o     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
* w$ X0 F) @4 e+ F     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
" A' `7 {9 h& x- E' n     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。& ~" s( l5 L+ K: T
     . f9 y6 K( j( @" a9 d/ m0 U& q
     三、球队表现
5 A/ k- J) I7 j' _) h     
8 L$ {0 Z# T1 U     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
3 Y! ~6 o- Y) @     2 t; ~5 _/ d2 d; m# d
     四、投注要点) a- Y/ M' N5 g1 Y, C! ]7 S
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
2 E) {4 \" d& A1 h     要点2:平手降盘、走两头+ `7 ?/ U% S; o+ d
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败# z' }; c% d2 G
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
5 a* p7 c6 i* w' H% L# b* c     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任" h4 {; y1 e% r
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大* J, M; q% j6 x3 p6 H0 V
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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