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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
* L. f* K) n* J/ O9 E     6 n1 W! e& L9 W0 @( v2 ~, t. i
     平手中水,主队有利! r. [3 [9 C( i+ d6 Q
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
) t5 _; L8 z! Z1 q0 |     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
0 ]; Y) v) R# C- w" R3 X/ P9 H     英超主队$ b$ [5 U- ~. D
     胜:13场 48%
& C. Q" T1 T+ z& H9 v, ^" [     平:5场 17%3 r! ?$ `3 U: T8 R" O
     负:9场 35%* t; d) L- B! H# l9 ?7 o
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
! y4 ?" ~- P* |. E& R2 ?     
3 [; k1 y/ r" J9 o0 R; T     一、初盘阶段0 K2 M8 q% l( p& f' ^& x% ?. N
     具体到水位如下:, Q- O" H2 B+ _2 r
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负+ }( P# o, L! k$ o
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负- t1 u* {# L6 t$ c; v& e& R
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负* U- K* K5 P; x
     5 V4 A0 o. V: H4 @: O
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
$ Y  v- m2 p" X' P$ z8 q; t% }     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。" d$ [8 d' f0 a
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
. q7 m' j( N# J1 \. G: Q" y- q     5 [9 j. i0 M: k$ I
     二、临场阶段0 x- b; R( a# W2 x4 ]; R  b$ i4 b/ x# ?
     
- U" K! d$ t$ A     具体到变盘和水位如下:
5 D5 R( n. ?; A. l- O4 q     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
; A0 b" m5 `+ x% a     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负' z$ n0 W/ R7 R" y/ D* R$ B
     ) }' t, Q* Z# O* s! Z
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。; L/ Y+ N' ?" n
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
5 G4 z  y8 q' A! M( l- @0 k, {     ( H7 ^, j- c5 u- ^
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
7 ~/ y+ \9 T# v" ~9 T- `0 y4 u1 v     初盘:0.82平手1.04
" ~! t# Y- J, w+ O* t     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.859 i) \9 e. K% q$ `, `7 {
     5 \; z7 Z0 A1 D8 ~
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆; M' }4 J, w8 b
     初盘:0.76平手1.10$ K3 C0 @9 k$ O! a5 z" t6 D" A$ \
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91  h$ Y# z7 e2 m  f: K
     
# W7 O! W- g, o/ a9 z0 [; Z# k- v  w( U/ g     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
, d1 e( h" F6 {- u     初盘:0.82平手1.04) G% `7 Q) h6 b; S- |, L4 i
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
9 m$ v- v/ R2 B     7 }0 i7 ^# C8 h( t6 K% n, _
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆- E; D3 Y$ R- r, r+ p4 [
     初盘:0.88平手0.98( z% T) j/ Y, J4 v" Z
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74& H& X# L4 g3 c4 u# t. J
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。$ W. W8 m9 G% ~( e
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。0 g: ?8 ?9 j0 f2 l& M# n% ?
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。$ O; P3 K( m% c1 `- C1 N4 j7 ~
     , s& s- _& }9 T4 t0 O5 J4 G) A1 X9 r
     三、球队表现
. z% \6 M+ N; r. m7 [$ I6 G     & E! M, s6 \& L! e2 _
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。4 q7 I+ ~, R4 B7 X( P5 u
     % K* ]1 z) o+ ~5 h3 d, I* y; h
     四、投注要点
: J) d. N" e  [. |. j     要点1:平手中水、主多不败/ S2 E3 r" ?0 Y0 |+ g: ?
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头- i4 F- }% v  j
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败& `0 b& J4 x$ l% l( C- r+ \' S9 u
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大& c/ a1 u' q3 X7 n
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任0 U; d* l. t/ e/ z" r) M& O
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
4 H0 E8 u0 _7 _$ W     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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