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1 o" ?7 I9 c8 }' f加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
+ s, G* i9 g; L6 `0 P6 v0 L5 E$ ^DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，0 q) y' `0 w# E; p/ N
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。( k- ]$ ^3 j4 I: j6 x
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
- e+ }, P4 B: `# M9 e1 KBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。; ~4 I+ h+ F2 W! d! K4 @ V2 ]
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：
9 i" J2 g+ I7 J2024年4月第四次减半4 [% D- Y1 S: C8 d; c
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF/ p* u+ ~( m# g, y, g
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
8 X& J7 O' ?2 ^) ~ l针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
3 Z e5 s4 u! l( l8 _二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
; ^) Z8 R) d1 v9 i2 nfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
/ i% }1 ^# {2 d& X6 _+ J& oPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
: _# h* q$ `$ N; H* j: M/ V; _诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。3 L8 o$ n/ u3 s, |* {
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁: t- _! j( q3 M) X* P' `
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
# }/ Q( C& L" N1 Z3 ? @# X金融(TradFi)产品。
$ e+ B( W: P' \2 m! v. R! m1 Y如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
: \, l: A) t' y8 g( X6 c2 }' O链桥」的项目。% ~4 Z2 I8 `, ?2 t6 G8 ~8 ^
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉( c; r: e9 [5 b3 c. v7 ]
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作- l3 Z7 s2 K* b" Y- M# q0 F
等。
9 \. \5 {7 D" j* f. JPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用3 T5 P3 D, `2 W# r& i1 v, O
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
6 |; v3 d* I& I l五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN' j: ?+ z( P9 S1 S$ Q" |7 q
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位5 f/ T+ L# D) s0 `
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。: V2 E' ~) J# [# \5 U \. n
Pantera点名了几个项目：7 r- z0 s% B8 K. T5 M* w3 E1 I2 _5 V
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图- b, h' Q: T& I& j$ j6 }
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
: \* U7 T, ^) E5 {* e/ E' DModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品4 {' E8 e5 D$ X7 z7 H
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划/ D( H* [- f; I/ s5 V1 F3 U
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游* [* S4 \+ E& Q# s
六、小型公链需专注特定应用/ ]2 k9 d: q; X, {# S/ ~
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
: {8 Q2 v6 E; Y( [4 V至能直接与L2竞争。& `# L9 ~+ N! v2 K4 \6 h
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
) I* @ K" d) i; o) ]; S \; vPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
# `8 S$ l9 Z4 \' j' ^ |成为「应用链」。
8 m: x( K; [; j7 C5 W事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
/ o5 V$ ]% ^; K2 O U
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