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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资：比特币牛市短期内不会发生！宏观经济对风险资产不利（转载）
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不少人推测加密货币市场已进入熊市底部，或可以在近期建仓等待反涨。但女股神
4 g7 l+ y) p5 `$ l% CCathie Wood旗下投资管理公司方舟投资(ARK Invest)于近日发布的比特币8月分析报告指出，多项宏观经济数据
1 E d- k" e9 v6 Q表明短期加密货币市场恐将下跌，前景不容乐观..
1 W# _# ^0 x u2 J u- u0 c( D9 v长期看涨比特币？短期看跌？
# b8 B- X F$ p3 ?8 u3 R+ O尽管方舟投资近期研究指出，比特币和人工智能的整合将能有效提高企业生产力、降低成本，会是未来的乐观看
6 S& c) {3 `. y1 ?涨信号，但考虑到近期宏观经济数据，比特币牛市的发展恐不会在短期内发生。
Y: {, n; _% r4 z- |; [据研究报告，方舟投资列举了加密货币前景不太乐观的几大原因，其一是自然利率与实际联邦基金政策利率的变
8 W( _7 k, w6 m7 X9 R* w化。随着通货膨胀持续放缓，将推高实际联邦基金政策利率并扩大与自然利率之间的差距，该指标对宏观经济影+ [: Z4 |8 v0 z0 M/ t
响相对悲观。
6 z% A" V' j% G. r" W& R7 L另分析师也关注到GDP(国内生产毛额)和GDI(国内生产收入)之间的差异。据报告指出，GDP和GDI应紧密结合，/ C9 P; G1 S P$ f9 [- n6 Q$ V/ b% v
因为赚取的收入应等于所生产的商品和服务的价值。然而，最新数据显示，GDP比GDI高出约3%，这表明生产数5 j- Z, I p- t9 }8 c
据的向下修正是可以预期的。
" \! l# o% H1 P$ |! s8 Q' o# A) V除此之外，美国ZF已连续六个月下调就业数据，突显了劳动力市场的疲软。而上一次连续六个月向下修正是在
( H' l4 y- l" o) \! m- Y( d2 {2007年，也就是金融危机爆发之前，这一事实也值得注意。/ ]" m+ j1 t m4 ]
宏观经济情况可能对风险资产不利
4 _4 M* H4 [- C另该报告还引用了Johnson Redbook Index(红皮书同店零售销售指数)，数据指出8月份同店销售总额出现12个0 L$ o0 |: a1 K( k ], H
月以来的首次反弹，这表明通膨正在上升，ZF可能会施加上行压力。6 q* X' Y3 E9 c, A$ [
上述指标或也表明，当前的宏观经济不确定性可能在未来几个月继续存在。然而，我们无法确定若经济增长放缓2 y% d! H1 m6 R1 L9 R# Z: i
和通膨上升，加密市场会如何反应，但这种情况通常被认为对风险资产非常不利。2 B9 S* a) |" Y
值得一提的是，方舟投资与加密货币交易所产品发行商21Shares曾共同合推比特币现货ETF，但美国证券交易委
" C3 i% \" {6 [# J, i8 [员会(SEC)于今年8月延长了审查时间。对此，Cathie Wood认为，SEC最终势必会通过现货ETF，但时间会落在灰
+ D4 s6 ~2 y) o度赢得与SEC的诉讼后。) ?' ]; d% O. b/ ^0 E
3 a" C+ S, J2 d' f- b6 |
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牛市或者熊市不是好预测的，还是尽量预测出短期走势吧，如果你想短抄的话 |
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