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[虚拟币交流]
方舟投资：比特币牛市短期内不会发生！宏观经济对风险资产不利（转载）
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不少人推测加密货币市场已进入熊市底部，或可以在近期建仓等待反涨。但女股神% W) u4 r1 o8 S+ J* I
Cathie Wood旗下投资管理公司方舟投资(ARK Invest)于近日发布的比特币8月分析报告指出，多项宏观经济数据
0 O# f M e! K表明短期加密货币市场恐将下跌，前景不容乐观..7 K; j* _, P/ `8 g$ O" ^
长期看涨比特币？短期看跌？% o$ h; b. g' [ T* U9 p
尽管方舟投资近期研究指出，比特币和人工智能的整合将能有效提高企业生产力、降低成本，会是未来的乐观看
8 J' H; R8 D) A& L# z9 r; o涨信号，但考虑到近期宏观经济数据，比特币牛市的发展恐不会在短期内发生。
$ K8 R% z; ~+ M, d0 j据研究报告，方舟投资列举了加密货币前景不太乐观的几大原因，其一是自然利率与实际联邦基金政策利率的变
+ o/ h; @. C- N9 H化。随着通货膨胀持续放缓，将推高实际联邦基金政策利率并扩大与自然利率之间的差距，该指标对宏观经济影
# k+ K K+ v$ x6 `0 d0 y响相对悲观。
5 S3 {$ G2 C- c3 u( ^# r另分析师也关注到GDP(国内生产毛额)和GDI(国内生产收入)之间的差异。据报告指出，GDP和GDI应紧密结合，2 {! ^- k& l% [ T0 G# b! F3 F }
因为赚取的收入应等于所生产的商品和服务的价值。然而，最新数据显示，GDP比GDI高出约3%，这表明生产数5 C4 p2 I5 d* E6 \+ O" P, @- w3 H
据的向下修正是可以预期的。/ h4 N1 e3 |. }3 H; o( m
除此之外，美国ZF已连续六个月下调就业数据，突显了劳动力市场的疲软。而上一次连续六个月向下修正是在7 F" i% B `, C% h, H6 d
2007年，也就是金融危机爆发之前，这一事实也值得注意。
0 w9 E+ p9 Y+ F) b宏观经济情况可能对风险资产不利$ ]9 A" C9 y% J. Z$ {
另该报告还引用了Johnson Redbook Index(红皮书同店零售销售指数)，数据指出8月份同店销售总额出现12个
, r, J4 k4 Q1 P* x9 L; @7 u2 L月以来的首次反弹，这表明通膨正在上升，ZF可能会施加上行压力。
/ m" {5 V6 t. T上述指标或也表明，当前的宏观经济不确定性可能在未来几个月继续存在。然而，我们无法确定若经济增长放缓8 \1 T5 ]1 P- d# c: l
和通膨上升，加密市场会如何反应，但这种情况通常被认为对风险资产非常不利。
$ _ |; o& a0 N, ^值得一提的是，方舟投资与加密货币交易所产品发行商21Shares曾共同合推比特币现货ETF，但美国证券交易委 h2 t3 w' Y s$ T
员会(SEC)于今年8月延长了审查时间。对此，Cathie Wood认为，SEC最终势必会通过现货ETF，但时间会落在灰
& v+ b) Y$ {4 ?1 G度赢得与SEC的诉讼后。
( g5 @' W+ N' s" P4 S5 }8 ?5 w9 S2 k6 Z' Y
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牛市或者熊市不是好预测的，还是尽量预测出短期走势吧，如果你想短抄的话 |
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