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[虚拟币交流]
Arthur Hayes：美国联准会仍会回归量化宽松！加密货币成救命稻草（转载）
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加密货币衍生品交易所BitMEX共同创办人Arthur Hayes，时常撰文畅谈有关加密货币
1 }2 N3 A% q0 B u0 J2 t# y9 ^# n3 I# V的市场概况，其精辟入里的观点备受许多读者关注，而近日他再次发布长文《Kite or Board》，文中痛批联准会5 o0 c0 y L2 X5 O5 O% c
的政策方向注定会失败。" ]; N1 Z' s% r7 f" S
批评联准会提油救火4 G; p) C; q( m
Arthur Hayes指出联准会试图通过提高利率来抑制通货膨涨，但又同时通过缩减资产负债表来回收流动性。然6 P" S+ s1 C7 X. B8 j7 O5 K' l# ?
而，加息会导致美国ZF支付更多的债务利息，其实等于对有钱人提供了另一种财政刺激，而缩表会直接从银行
% `) X! n' ]8 \; ^. D+ ?8 ~; Z$ ?体系中回收资金，这两种政策的影响可能相互抵消，此举无疑是美国ZF在「割肉来治疗疮疤」。
, L( J! b# K2 I- T% `, E$ ^Hayes提到1980年代的美国是可以这么做的，因为据统计数据显示，1980年美国债务占GDP的比例为30%。而今
0 `# Y- ?# t' Q天，这个比例高达118%，这意味着当初的ZF开始收紧货币供应并且让利率飙升时，美国ZF的财政状况并未受
$ l. ?( i- @1 j8 r) v. u# o到太大影响，因为还没有太多未偿还的债务，如今2023年情况完全相反，现在的债务规模已增加了4倍。
( i: H! O/ y. } T. j, w0 d" e# S. SHayes表示截至2023年第二季度，美国财政部按年计算已向债务持有人支付了近1兆美元的利息。从宏观层面来! p* N( L8 U! R0 N- x* t b9 ]
看，很明显随着联准会加息，美国财政部会以利息支付的形式向富人提供刺激。8 [$ B5 E- U! |. n1 J( |
恐重启量化宽松，金融巨头关注加密货币
- }$ S: v6 o+ s' J8 C3 F% |Arthur Hayes在文中邀请一位在联准会的专栏作家，同时也是经济学家的Dr.Charles W.Calormiris分享看法，他) E7 s, O F2 v* Q& l
指出美国ZF可能在不久后重启量化宽松政策：当债券市场开始相信ZF的有息债务已超出可行性的上限时，政3 ~. j* H- u( j% I2 A; s7 }" F
府的下一次债券拍卖会有一个意义上「失败」，即市场对ZF信任不足，对新债券发行的利率需求越来越高，最
3 y. u( f4 [* O6 S终ZF撤回了发行，并将「印钞」作为替代方案。; w+ X( R3 S6 C E
Calormiris警告：重启量化宽松后，整个金融体系会发生剧烈变化、Arthur Hayes也补充提到「金融脱媒」，由
& h: O* a) P3 _$ ?9 g, D于全球又会因降息再一次面临低迷的收益率，所有资金将从银行体系流向其他替代渠道，银行和资产管理公司会
3 _4 e3 B! }& T& E0 L! R% i突然热衷于加密货币，因为知道ZF正在争夺他们的存款基础，确保自己持有唯一可用的通膨解药，就是加密货
! s2 i- d# K$ P; A) j$ Z币。
% W5 @- d3 ~% D( R7 |: \: q: M
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