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[虚拟币交流]
Arthur Hayes：美国联准会仍会回归量化宽松！加密货币成救命稻草（转载）
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加密货币衍生品交易所BitMEX共同创办人Arthur Hayes，时常撰文畅谈有关加密货币
5 M( n3 A. j% C& S* |- Y的市场概况，其精辟入里的观点备受许多读者关注，而近日他再次发布长文《Kite or Board》，文中痛批联准会
4 L: K) Z p/ v# E! i, G& @% C% W$ L9 T的政策方向注定会失败。: p, m2 V1 s: ]4 A# r
批评联准会提油救火
' r/ ~ ~' b+ X' m" NArthur Hayes指出联准会试图通过提高利率来抑制通货膨涨，但又同时通过缩减资产负债表来回收流动性。然
. r3 S$ C/ s6 `- d$ @而，加息会导致美国ZF支付更多的债务利息，其实等于对有钱人提供了另一种财政刺激，而缩表会直接从银行
a! ^ g# ^1 ?! V5 @体系中回收资金，这两种政策的影响可能相互抵消，此举无疑是美国ZF在「割肉来治疗疮疤」。0 G& h, O3 u* x, Y& ^( I" _
Hayes提到1980年代的美国是可以这么做的，因为据统计数据显示，1980年美国债务占GDP的比例为30%。而今* v; ~9 X3 w# S) O: D6 g! P2 y* G
天，这个比例高达118%，这意味着当初的ZF开始收紧货币供应并且让利率飙升时，美国ZF的财政状况并未受& t! I$ n. ^( j, K
到太大影响，因为还没有太多未偿还的债务，如今2023年情况完全相反，现在的债务规模已增加了4倍。
+ z* w9 Z) f* y k1 HHayes表示截至2023年第二季度，美国财政部按年计算已向债务持有人支付了近1兆美元的利息。从宏观层面来
5 V2 Z5 ? z5 Y$ N* Y" `6 @8 F% s0 B6 {- H看，很明显随着联准会加息，美国财政部会以利息支付的形式向富人提供刺激。
\& z* O1 p2 Z8 F' \" _恐重启量化宽松，金融巨头关注加密货币9 @/ y- W/ V, @8 F
Arthur Hayes在文中邀请一位在联准会的专栏作家，同时也是经济学家的Dr.Charles W.Calormiris分享看法，他
" k1 i. x( ^" i* u) W5 D: Q# G指出美国ZF可能在不久后重启量化宽松政策：当债券市场开始相信ZF的有息债务已超出可行性的上限时，政: y( D: u. s5 O
府的下一次债券拍卖会有一个意义上「失败」，即市场对ZF信任不足，对新债券发行的利率需求越来越高，最9 o" B+ V4 u( q1 K. e6 e1 z& R7 T
终ZF撤回了发行，并将「印钞」作为替代方案。
0 r: B4 I1 X! v1 X2 b$ U% D) @1 `Calormiris警告：重启量化宽松后，整个金融体系会发生剧烈变化、Arthur Hayes也补充提到「金融脱媒」，由% [" I! |1 K4 S. N$ `# ~' P
于全球又会因降息再一次面临低迷的收益率，所有资金将从银行体系流向其他替代渠道，银行和资产管理公司会8 i- \' g b/ s# w% M$ V1 b
突然热衷于加密货币，因为知道ZF正在争夺他们的存款基础，确保自己持有唯一可用的通膨解药，就是加密货0 i. w' g; V; r2 c
币。% F/ K9 Q# A4 T, Q0 P
; k0 }' w2 t) I& V& w( \$ ^+ q6 R$ f
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