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[虚拟币交流]
Arthur Hayes：美国联准会仍会回归量化宽松！加密货币成救命稻草（转载）
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加密货币衍生品交易所BitMEX共同创办人Arthur Hayes，时常撰文畅谈有关加密货币8 E' G, x. y* u, q. v, ~
的市场概况，其精辟入里的观点备受许多读者关注，而近日他再次发布长文《Kite or Board》，文中痛批联准会7 x1 J8 |# `' u5 c8 H z0 d8 o7 s
的政策方向注定会失败。
# n# |# ]4 x4 C批评联准会提油救火
/ U8 u3 s# V( P+ D8 g) K- DArthur Hayes指出联准会试图通过提高利率来抑制通货膨涨，但又同时通过缩减资产负债表来回收流动性。然
7 F- n% F& F% P& e; F+ h而，加息会导致美国ZF支付更多的债务利息，其实等于对有钱人提供了另一种财政刺激，而缩表会直接从银行# b Z. @; n7 b- G
体系中回收资金，这两种政策的影响可能相互抵消，此举无疑是美国ZF在「割肉来治疗疮疤」。# d: ]' E$ w# Q, }; ~+ T
Hayes提到1980年代的美国是可以这么做的，因为据统计数据显示，1980年美国债务占GDP的比例为30%。而今
, y5 v( g. G4 _) V0 r天，这个比例高达118%，这意味着当初的ZF开始收紧货币供应并且让利率飙升时，美国ZF的财政状况并未受; `7 H/ |6 v" M4 t
到太大影响，因为还没有太多未偿还的债务，如今2023年情况完全相反，现在的债务规模已增加了4倍。
# {+ I2 E: u8 c& m( cHayes表示截至2023年第二季度，美国财政部按年计算已向债务持有人支付了近1兆美元的利息。从宏观层面来- U: s w: W2 r) J# ?$ N
看，很明显随着联准会加息，美国财政部会以利息支付的形式向富人提供刺激。. k, ~. J: R% x6 }4 V
恐重启量化宽松，金融巨头关注加密货币
8 Y' `, ]2 G' {5 J. \) B+ F2 ^. NArthur Hayes在文中邀请一位在联准会的专栏作家，同时也是经济学家的Dr.Charles W.Calormiris分享看法，他
F0 ?- B1 C- C* ]2 L9 i3 Y指出美国ZF可能在不久后重启量化宽松政策：当债券市场开始相信ZF的有息债务已超出可行性的上限时，政
b# n' z2 n! E府的下一次债券拍卖会有一个意义上「失败」，即市场对ZF信任不足，对新债券发行的利率需求越来越高，最$ h. p5 T' p) M/ }" }% J4 G0 k; F
终ZF撤回了发行，并将「印钞」作为替代方案。
: O" e# w, O6 |8 h6 {Calormiris警告：重启量化宽松后，整个金融体系会发生剧烈变化、Arthur Hayes也补充提到「金融脱媒」，由
; e. p+ i8 \3 C' c于全球又会因降息再一次面临低迷的收益率，所有资金将从银行体系流向其他替代渠道，银行和资产管理公司会! R9 d" O/ C0 Q" t4 E! {5 t* g; T: y4 n
突然热衷于加密货币，因为知道ZF正在争夺他们的存款基础，确保自己持有唯一可用的通膨解药，就是加密货3 t+ c2 s0 x6 j8 ]
币。
# l0 q; O) Z' i/ I$ z6 s) a0 L- o4 h
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