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[虚拟币交流]
Arthur Hayes：美国联准会仍会回归量化宽松！加密货币成救命稻草（转载）
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加密货币衍生品交易所BitMEX共同创办人Arthur Hayes，时常撰文畅谈有关加密货币5 v# |& f# v$ K$ h1 @5 s% }7 N- e
的市场概况，其精辟入里的观点备受许多读者关注，而近日他再次发布长文《Kite or Board》，文中痛批联准会, _- Q1 \7 Q8 x8 Q8 s7 x! k0 `7 g
的政策方向注定会失败。
, H. n9 X0 c* K) A: q! X: |批评联准会提油救火
% E q3 T. A* _5 F6 _, w5 c/ `Arthur Hayes指出联准会试图通过提高利率来抑制通货膨涨，但又同时通过缩减资产负债表来回收流动性。然
* j1 i5 Q5 |# e而，加息会导致美国ZF支付更多的债务利息，其实等于对有钱人提供了另一种财政刺激，而缩表会直接从银行0 ~ J* ~( T0 L# y3 ~5 z0 P
体系中回收资金，这两种政策的影响可能相互抵消，此举无疑是美国ZF在「割肉来治疗疮疤」。
: C O; V Z% ?) w0 yHayes提到1980年代的美国是可以这么做的，因为据统计数据显示，1980年美国债务占GDP的比例为30%。而今, P# m$ t/ ]0 J" m( ]
天，这个比例高达118%，这意味着当初的ZF开始收紧货币供应并且让利率飙升时，美国ZF的财政状况并未受
* j: d- j8 J$ E0 w# \) ~3 N; A* h到太大影响，因为还没有太多未偿还的债务，如今2023年情况完全相反，现在的债务规模已增加了4倍。. @$ s0 S; q. a; ^& h% B
Hayes表示截至2023年第二季度，美国财政部按年计算已向债务持有人支付了近1兆美元的利息。从宏观层面来
8 m; }/ ^$ p3 x$ l4 g% y看，很明显随着联准会加息，美国财政部会以利息支付的形式向富人提供刺激。& d1 o1 L* _; @+ Z
恐重启量化宽松，金融巨头关注加密货币
. `4 M4 T% t* I, y1 @! w3 T4 j' SArthur Hayes在文中邀请一位在联准会的专栏作家，同时也是经济学家的Dr.Charles W.Calormiris分享看法，他/ Z, k3 a' ^2 [& }$ W" ~5 v
指出美国ZF可能在不久后重启量化宽松政策：当债券市场开始相信ZF的有息债务已超出可行性的上限时，政* _3 K$ E/ |# o2 I6 m P1 _# \( u
府的下一次债券拍卖会有一个意义上「失败」，即市场对ZF信任不足，对新债券发行的利率需求越来越高，最
& G l( m* ^, z5 ~4 c# [7 f- a终ZF撤回了发行，并将「印钞」作为替代方案。5 h; i/ Q6 C+ ~0 ^) F. A" q
Calormiris警告：重启量化宽松后，整个金融体系会发生剧烈变化、Arthur Hayes也补充提到「金融脱媒」，由- L- i) W; C! y% E
于全球又会因降息再一次面临低迷的收益率，所有资金将从银行体系流向其他替代渠道，银行和资产管理公司会
X8 L1 I9 @6 H8 T' X突然热衷于加密货币，因为知道ZF正在争夺他们的存款基础，确保自己持有唯一可用的通膨解药，就是加密货: E% O- {4 I$ ]7 g, q6 O
币。
/ v8 Y" M( U8 H; g; L6 d; u2 l1 ]& N+ Q- L- C6 h
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