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[虚拟币交流]
Ripple加入ISDA会员！XRP目标价1896美元？（转载）
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支付网络公司Ripple近期加入了ISDA会员，有人乐观预估其币价会上看1,898美元。7 U, K- g9 N2 }4 g- O
ISDA有何重要性？真的对XRP币价有如此深远的影响吗？
7 h# I" e4 R0 t/ ]: x- z- U什么是ISDA？
9 @+ `, T4 H7 [* n% D7 }/ T$ I国际交换兼衍生性商品协会(International Swaps and Derivatives Association，ISDA)为总部位于美国纽约的非
& E5 Q; }9 r7 k# f营利性组织，成立于1985年。银行或金融交易对手若要承作衍生性金融商品，都会预先签订所谓的ISDA主契约2 Z1 z) _" Y6 A) Q) N
(master agreement)，这个由ISDA设计，目前广为世界各金融中心所沿用的法律契约，其主要功能在于规范交易5 l& M: e2 A" `! ?! ~, O j
双方的法律风险及信用风险，并且通过中立的角色，设计出公平的法律条款，使双方的交易成本降低，有助于市5 ]1 E5 p3 S' R; u' E$ t, t0 l4 C/ m+ J g
场的正常发展。! ?4 q! j: W1 n" E: O, A3 M: r
换句话说，要跟全球的金融机构交易衍生性商品，就必需加入ISDA。
& [4 ?/ ]7 S3 P7 Q8 g进入ISDA的数字资产会员名单，目前仅有16名会员，其中大家比较熟悉的还包括Crypto.com、Algorand和
# T+ {7 A9 a7 r# R/ m0 e; mDigital Asset。& Q5 y" f( A" e0 b
加入ISDA，XRP目标价1,896美元？0 {. A" i: g. i. i' g9 v
Digital Perspectives PermaBull的推文引发了一系列讨论。他强调了Ripple与ISDA的合作对XRP价格的潜在影* P1 \! T' O3 ~5 m' s! R( k) P
响，其中引用了Mr.Man的推算法，若Ripple能获得主流的采用，将使其币价来到1,896美元。8 j8 {" w3 b8 m- \0 a' ~: w
根据其推论：! b2 K+ J% C1 D1 M3 @" t) n5 Z# h2 i
现今全球衍生性商品总市值为1,000兆美元0 Y6 l* ?0 s [) z. m) B+ @; }
若Ripple能协助处理其中10%的交易量，也就是100兆美元
/ C+ ^' W7 m. _* W9 J* EXRP目前总市值为349亿美元6 \/ K* k# t0 h' L, K m
需成长2,865倍才能达到100兆美元- Z5 R" G( H1 W) y* w! Z4 D
而XRP目前币价为0.661742
8 Q& r( j( F1 h/ T0.661742*2865=1,896.23美元
1 B9 g! s6 {+ x7 `挟带ISO和ISDA的优势引导传统金融的采用？
; ^* y* o+ Q& i: C不过观察XRP近期的走势，仅有在七月中因与SEC的诉讼案传出好消息而一度大涨99%，之后币价逐渐回落后似乎5 D V' H( [' ^2 z
也未有极大的波动。' b. C' p/ c9 Y" |% J% w: l
而上述的论点仅基于简单的假设和推论，比方说10%的交易量，是来自传统金融产业想利用区块链技术进行衍生" x# _% @+ T! z: I- g$ P ~7 A
性金融商品交易？交易量和市值的关系应该也不是如此直观而直接。但随着Ripple和SEC的诉讼案逐渐明朗，这
; f+ }% m3 G( G. r9 g/ A3 h8 W个早期加入区块链的支付公司，是否有机会利用其XRP Ledger的底层技术，挟带ISO20022和ISDA的优势，慢慢7 p1 @9 |( G9 |5 `
引导传统金融的采用呢？/ c f% M$ `% Q3 R8 T3 X" \
. x. |' L* l. A% Z6 P2 _
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