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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不
$ d8 W# H( M8 g& y断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。
1 x+ g7 l- H5 v" i; i但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上" M- T( K: P3 c) V
30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。
6 r/ g, l+ X; N波动率历史低点，爆发到来？6 F# [5 Y7 U2 R
近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄$ ^: ]3 A( Y+ Q% @
金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)) ~1 |; i, z/ @: J( @2 P: _
从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的
4 h- n3 D4 L% n( y; t4 r$ x7 g低点。% n5 _5 ]" c7 f: ?- n
全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
$ u& R1 r' p1 {4 S3 X6 S) W另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突
( K* O# S! W. R: S8 q1 O) O0 j显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。
: p8 `4 D0 D; ^8 ?目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机) s8 U: d" w+ a& J4 }9 w. ^0 w1 p0 M
率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。
0 E: l$ o& m0 U! u) u/ b& d( n美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael) B: k+ Z2 m+ D3 m! x# A/ y
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。6 z+ T2 P& i: [
“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种2 P# S3 ?! R7 Y4 D2 p
情况不会在短时间内结束。”8 \$ h/ x; \! P) \! m9 v
纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下
, l' u& b. ^8 D, T降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。
2 B A4 O9 U: Y比特币ETF即将通过？
8 D4 v- K/ L. d3 v+ @. ~另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg
; C" Y* r; |- h$ p# r. [资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上4 Z9 p- s5 l; ^ _/ N# a
表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的
8 y& W7 O6 Q& z4 n8 w. `6 Y问题。4 B! F- d5 s5 }4 o0 J
似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。
; k( e% |) Q) s1 W# m h/ v! b& C
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