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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不. a* E' @% U# h8 y1 J s7 n2 V2 {; N% \" h
断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。
6 ^: E/ F# p: e# z. i( ?) A但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上
P1 h" q& i1 b30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。/ y& Y2 U: _+ `: s
波动率历史低点，爆发到来？
; \2 @# q' X I1 t8 P7 x# W近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄, i9 V0 K, E$ F
金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
& m4 A" f5 P% \) e( `从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的$ [* J7 @. h% ?
低点。; ]* ^/ X9 z; o. r
全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
% U& P0 }4 `: U" r0 h5 r另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突
0 P) f: d7 `- k0 S) c! s6 |- y显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。8 b5 V5 O2 W4 y& G0 U
目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机
8 x4 C8 P7 N. [# K: h率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。
" X. e& ~9 _* w% J' ]' \- G美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael
' a" x5 V+ k- q5 X: ~7 [8 ]: _1 \, rBostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。
( l8 x7 Q, G0 {5 R. _' Q# b5 V2 H) y5 l% v“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种% B6 w' ^. G. f5 `/ b
情况不会在短时间内结束。”
1 ]! e+ J0 c o! k- e: o3 c( D( {纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下+ c" l _( }8 T$ s& ]
降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。0 Y/ V8 b0 [' q! }$ @* `' G$ l2 j
比特币ETF即将通过？
# W3 `2 ]' F( l: e/ m, N: i另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg) |2 R) v' E# B- }# g
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上
6 }1 C. f; A0 L: U/ ?表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的
6 p( M: P$ _1 N7 x! h问题。
% Z" v5 {! D% Z5 ]; ^4 S, K似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。6 Z/ g$ A6 D4 @+ H, ?
% M7 A" a* |7 ]/ \2 ^& l |
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