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[虚拟币交流]
FED主席警告：2023至少再升息2次！市场期待降息不切实际（转载）
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联准会主席Jerome Hayden Powell在美东时间周四早上亲赴参议院银行委员会听证会重申FED立场，Powell表
% C0 C( M- E* V2 z P& Y! u- Z示，虽然在六月的FOMC会议没有升息，但这绝并不是停止升息的讯号，仅仅只是放缓升息脚步，不代表不会继8 V$ {) ] j6 n& n; H
续升息。( n9 L @! \1 ]# W7 ^
Powell认为，打击通膨刻非常坚定的原因是美国的工人阶级正在饱受催残，因此将通货膨胀率坚定地守在2%这个( b/ W' Q+ ?! Y& e2 H: n
节点上是至关重要的，而且Powell也强调联准会成员都相信我们正在接近(这个目标)，但他承认，加息仍要再往上
. B; b+ u. Q! B7 U: Y$ Z0 q; w走一些。% o4 Z8 q& _2 k3 `2 j0 Y% G
“一开始我们动作很快，后来就慢慢放慢了，这只是现况的延续…我们很好的预测，如果经济按预期运行将会发生# o( Y2 v) e2 P
什么。”
/ Z6 Z, z( r3 F8 ]重申再升息两次、市场过度乐观
7 e/ ~. R# B" ?6 ~* E9 S; S1 F在最新的升息点阵图中，FOMC对于2023年的最终利率预期值中位数是5.6%，这意味着若每次升息25个基点1 I# w3 P8 |: A' L9 I
(0.25)，当前的利率来说仍需要至少再升息两次以上(当前的利率区间为5%~5.25%)。1 q0 r7 o1 W5 k/ d0 s1 d
Powell在听证会也回答了是否会在2024年以前出现降息，而他回应不可能很快发生，Powell认为市场过早关注于
6 M& _$ e" v1 K# A' ?降息的可能，这太过乐观了：对于降息我们的判断，就是看我们是否对通货膨胀回归到2%的目标有信心，也需要
. P( ]: o9 S" D4 K/ W6 \观察经济发展如何，就目前的状况来说，通膨的持续程度超过许多联准会成员的预期。
1 e! Z5 ` Z: C2 e对银行爆雷回应
3 ?, V% |0 n) O5 N# L9 @/ _; n8 b除了升息议题以外，对银行相关的监管也是许多参议员询问Powell的核心攻防话题，Powell回应近期要求提高资( `' T* {6 n& ?) l5 u: g
本适足率的要求，是针对资产规模超过1000亿美元的超大型银行，对一般小型银行、社区银行没有影响。而至于9 A# _5 E! c3 [7 s5 ~
硅谷银行的破产监管责任，Powell也承认当前的美国金融与FED系统有执法上的问题，需进一步地的改革：对公
3 n, w" t: _* S$ p9 R. o6 h务员来说，如果有渎职、违反规定的话，他们就会被解雇，但(硅谷银行)这次没有发生类似的事情，而旧金山联储+ d8 S$ m7 @; T. e
当时也发现了问题，提醒了(硅谷银行)银行管理层，但后续的执法力度不够，这也是联准会体系的问题。' T/ `. u6 |. @8 R8 I: ?
2 l& e$ o y+ A& S9 F7 p
! {* w5 \+ l2 S* q( D |
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