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[lastpost] => 2796494 贝莱德本周伊始便售出价值 3.61 亿美元的比特币和以太坊。（转） 1768290896 rainwang
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预知市场底部是不可能的，但我们可以利用三个指标来获得熊市何时接近结束的早期信号。 / O# ]+ L9 Y& N* e; F9 @$ H4 ?8 [# f
价格每天都在下跌，目前我们心中的问题是：“市场何时见底，熊市将持续多久？”
9 d* U4 g* N+ x) A$ f- H8 U! M虽然无法预测熊市何时结束，但研究之前的下跌趋势可以帮助我们了解该阶段何时结束。
( P# Z1 [! A- U* I以下是华尔街交易员用来帮助了解熊市何时结束的三个指标。
7 I; C% g" L% Z8 |RSI 指标 判断底部之王 " |4 b+ b2 d& h B
相对强度指数 (RSI)是了解熊市何时可能处于低点的技术指标。
$ \+ B% X+ d* b; D0 r. {' H更具体地说，在之前的熊市中，比特币 RSI 跌至超卖区域，并在 BTC 创出低点跌破 16 分时。 3 x. @; B! c/ t" W( B
基于图中用橙色圆圈突出显示的两个实例，比特币价格跌至RSI指数16时难以进一步下跌，并且RSI 再次回升至 70 上方进入超买区域，才确认低点已经出现，这表明需求的增加再次回到了市场。 " R$ P8 e5 ^3 K, b; G @0 U: Z
9 k v2 f1 y4 J2 y! {+ F
BTC/USDT 日线图表。图片资料来源：TradingView
4 ?4 O+ [ k/ \( I" r/ R- w3 U3 Q0 Y+ V市场价值对实现价值
1 h, J/ U) R$ b& N0 w实现价值的市场价值（MVRV）Z 分数是一个指标，旨在识别比特币相对于其‘公允价值’被极度高估或低估的时期。 7 r5 z6 X1 e5 L& t# f
图中的蓝线代表比特币的当前市值，橙线代表比特币的价格，红线代表 Z 分数，这是一种“标准差测试，在数据中拉出市值和实现价值。” 4 f* ?2 ^/ U( X9 ]! V
如图所示：底部的浅绿色区域突出显示了之前的熊市中 Z 分数低于 0.1的位置，表示比特币价格已严重低估。该指标回升至 0.1 分以上，将确认新的上升趋势的开始。 x6 N5 m1 `# s7 [' H+ u5 z
根据历史表现，该指标表明比特币在目前仍可能存在下行空间，随后会出现较长时间的横向价格走势。
7 B# L/ B$ z: Q$ i8 H- W
1 ]' z( |* j2 \5 R
MVRV Z 分数。图片资料来源：LookIntoBitcoin
" P2 P/ q& `6 H$ }7 W两年移动平均乘数通道 q+ Q4 ?' l8 q* f$ o% j$ g5 v
观察熊市何时结束的最终指标是 2 年移动平均乘数通道。该指标跟踪 两年移动平均线 (MA) 与比特币价格的 5 倍乘积。 1 r- A% X+ v' v' z( T
下图中蓝色线为两年平均移动线，红色线为比特币价格的 5 倍乘积。只要 BTC 的价格跌破 2 年均线，市场就进入熊市区域。一旦价格回升至 2 年均线上方，就会出现上涨趋势。
# N. N" b6 b0 D5 I( @, q9 r另一方面，价格攀升至 红色线预示着牛市可能见顶，是获利了结的好时机。 8 k4 A5 d8 J( R [& g2 Z9 j0 m
1 P" H8 n9 @3 @; G! a# }5 o两年 MA 乘数通道 |
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