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美联储前三把手杜德利表示，美联储可能在50基点和100基点之间选择一个折中点，因此，此次加息75个基点的可能性更大。 Q: O9 ~& u# e7 {( n
a B+ R3 L P0 n7 g) @) O持续受恐慌情绪影响，隔夜美股收盘，标普500指数连续两日收于熊市区间，和道琼斯指数均连跌五日。三大指数中，只有纳指小幅收涨，暂别近两年低谷。 1 c- s- j( r+ i9 U
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在上周五公布的通胀数据意外上行并创四十年新高之后，市场普遍预计美联储将更加激进地加息。 : S9 l4 B7 Y4 c t3 c7 w! }2 d
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目前，美联储将在本周的利率决议上加息75个基点逐渐成为华尔街的共识，其中包括巴克莱、摩根大通、高盛等大型投行。 9 h I) x' `7 Z; {+ H& F+ j7 d( k
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据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美联储观察工具，从6月10日至13日，美联储本周加息75个基点的可能性已从23.2%上升至95.5%。
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% e9 R3 F, ^. A) R5 h4 g; b摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli和渣打银行全球外汇研究和北美宏观策略负责人Steven Englander甚至认为美联储本次可能加息100个基点。 ! F: g/ X0 R/ C
7 \( T0 e ]3 l+ }4 ?+ D值得一提的是，美联储前三把手、前纽约联储主席威廉·杜德利也做出类似的预测。
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“我的感觉是，美联储已经决定加息75个基点而非50个基点，因为过去一周的数据显示通胀上升，而且可能会有一些关于通胀预期的更令人不安的消息。”
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) M- ^ Y1 H/ @此外，杜德利表示，美联储完全可以基于同样的理由在本次的利率决议中加息100个基点，因为：
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“如果你认为速度和最终达到的水平一样重要，那为什么不快点到达呢？”
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4 ^1 D5 D. g; g4 F1 J根据杜德利的说法，美联储可能在50基点和100基点之间选择一个折中点，因此，此次加息75个基点的可能性更大。 5 V0 Y6 O( M1 X
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如果华尔街的共识变成现实，这将是美联储自1994年以来首次一次性加息75个基点。 2 |' F# q3 J5 l; a
3 e& e$ s/ f$ J% Q5 c) S2 K按照美联储在加息周期开始时的说法，美联储的目标是尽可能快地让利率回到中性水平。但在5月的储例行新闻发布会上，鲍威尔改变了这种以中性利率为目标的态度，明确表示加到中性利率后再定加息终点。他表示要继续加息，直到有“明确和令人信服”的证据表明通胀正在放缓。 ) o! G1 _8 s- \- Q
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另外，鲍威尔在5月的例行新闻发布会上表示，未来两次会议可能加息50个基点，暂排除75个基点加息。但有分析表示，加息50个基点可能会给金融市场带来更大的混乱。 |
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