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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 * W2 W4 n/ p# p. i3 P! d6 F
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
. z/ s, B& d6 q& ~此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。
H6 {- ]- H$ w0 [* |5 _' r% {: q以太坊基金集体亏损
) S4 M+ o S. [% I3 ~- f4 x根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 4 T% a+ l! }0 n
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
- I$ x9 k1 h, H# ^+ F与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。 4 V. M1 g. `8 P
& o! |- Q) Y A" s9 r( k; e0 @编辑切换为居中
" C3 k" M& ~8 C+ r" P% `1 Q流入/流出加密资金(按资产) # ]( o; ?1 X% c/ P
这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
8 J0 `# b# \% @以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 g6 |# n1 D! M) f) q( \
0 o& j% g( f5 ]* s! I( E4 |编辑切换为居中
9 X# Q# T- r# Q: O/ D1 b; b4 S6月5日的TVL以太坊 . Z7 |& W( x& b, B# [: n, {3 |
但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。 2 U( a8 W3 t' o/ Z' c0 q, N8 A' f
宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
* R. U4 l2 O8 p: E7 _男性讲述金融时报:
% W0 b1 u7 M* N“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
1 V% T% x1 Q1 i2 o7 j+ ~$ N/ R
呆滞的技术面
2 c- E: w) I2 z! n7 U( _自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
+ x& O3 V8 e! i! z具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
; t! ~; @( u, m, o1 z) ^7 c根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 8 X: R5 V4 f% U' u: U- t7 i% d. V
4 s. ~* o d+ G; k e/ q' T编辑切换为居中
1 B U6 C+ ]6 A/ H) |ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
& P0 \* g p8 D: u1 z; m7 }/ N如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 4 j) s& f7 f k+ G4 V* I
交易所的ETH储备正在增加 * Q. f3 h$ M7 V, a' `
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. $ Z" v. Q! N9 G* C5 Y& J5 J' o! P( ]. j
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
5 k0 U& |0 W6 y! Q, [2 r, K+ ^$ e
3 l/ S- |4 z2 E. n
编辑切换为居中
. Y5 N' W0 c- @以太坊外汇储备 + t% d9 a! \9 n5 _3 J
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
+ o( ], E3 E4 r* ^7 E. i2 h# [1 l来源：金色财经 |
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