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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
! J% f2 s5 E. t* {( q5 l* n- l余勋也不例外、
0 G, G1 a4 l' b5 t/ m! y5 ~其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
. E9 C" f( w/ ~- s1 B是保经济的重要决策！
. B7 k( Y* q) N/ K1 R这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
0 [( a7 l* I$ y* _; U9 e; N$ y低点26700-32400、 ' F5 i4 q9 K7 X+ c# I
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
6 h3 e% y! }) H: A$ L但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
+ |; Z; B$ U$ z- [; N% f1 {大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 # q1 S' b5 H6 \, t5 h( J
涨幅就已回撤过半！
: u6 v4 [& v0 h0 n3 c3 j! h所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
; t# Z$ s9 b; B6 s' Z# y! }不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
+ ^8 w: B& q# t8 u$ b. O其次、 6 f4 `0 [7 _, b/ A5 E
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 / j# b& X7 Y+ Y+ w5 B
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
+ p- w8 w5 j6 P$ l8 b等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
6 H! f" |2 R) x美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
+ i" ~% Y6 n- b' |但回到币圈、 ( v! N( p I+ ^4 Y9 t% `4 E
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
9 h. W' y3 B: j7 E1 R- `在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
$ Y6 R9 u% B( s _* ?而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
1 D, m* a/ D$ s. N7 f1 W d' g个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 " H! b; [8 H8 G1 a; o1 H
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
4 V) W E2 B8 U( O3 c7 ] g3 O对当前的底部、影响有限。 l. T2 L6 \: ?2 S# F& i$ P
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 $ ?% a; Z7 K' B' K$ q+ [' y( m
所以27000、即是
9 E- z; g3 q4 p( @1 u4 }去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） : k% i+ Q$ ~ W; y
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
2 ^8 x- T0 Z: @! [) T. S/ z6 E也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
3 [6 s8 L' u5 x; g1 D0 q由此得出的结论是、
/ M' a8 }* K/ R" D% ^加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
: U* o. _% T& w点位不会出现太大偏离。
2 q, A# O' `! S: Q$ c( k综合以上、 + y I) m, r/ m
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
5 M- k, \& b2 V9 C9 B4 ^, V* V5 _在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
6 _9 z5 c. H1 m: F9 Z那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ( B, y3 p( ^( Q, j
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 . v: V, O& j& D, U
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 ; _$ F7 H+ p0 d
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
4 ~$ N. W/ Y, a& L2 f, H美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
0 \' g& Q( t. O! B7 X夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 # H4 c: r0 d4 ?* t4 H
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 0 a R4 M& u9 u$ a) r/ K( ^
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 2 N2 Q, y K- n4 h2 k5 _4 j0 Y% p
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
$ _2 {2 `; |7 b9 M0 w( E# f# s& ]反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
4 c4 ]. y" N) T6 L: y$ @得不偿失。 + M% W" b$ N, c, d$ T, }* w
来源：金色财经 |
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